Space Post - Why is the rate of progress so slow!

[SymphonicX]

Agreed, Something else people who bemoan the costs of manned space missions don't realize is the HUGE number of spin-off technologies that improve the lives of all of us that will never step foot in a shuttle. No manned space missions = no more advanced spin-off technologies created to meet the demands of a NASA mission, but also have proven to be lucrative right here on earth. Hell, we even call most of the modern fabrication materials "Space Age alloys/materials" Pretty much says it all, eh? It's a similar story with the miltary too - their technological advances are now in our every day lives - can you say "internet"? The issue I think is the sheer amount of power you need to leave this Earth's gravity - I mean just look at what they have to strap onto a shuttle craft to get it into Orbit - but with new ideas just around the corner HOPEFULLY we can really start to reep the potential benefits of space travel - I don't want to see the travel "issue" solved however - we don't NEED to leave this planet en mass for holidays... we need to mine minerals from other planets - use them on Earth and minimise the impact to our environment - typical human endeavour, use someone else's assets - probably the easiest way to discover hidden alien life, start stealing shit then wait for it to pop out

[Rancid Carcass]

we need to mine minerals from other planets - use them on Earth and minimise the impact to our environment - typical human endeavour, use someone else's assets - probably the easiest way to discover hidden alien life, start stealing shit then wait for it to pop out. It's just a vicious circle, we do enough of this on Earth - how long would it be before we get caught up in a war with some sort of Space Taliban. Bloody humans!

[Danny]

It's just a vicious circle, we do enough of this on Earth - how long would it be before we get caught up in a war with some sort of Space Taliban. Bloody humans! spoiler warning!: independence day is gonna happen, but we will be the alien invaders.

[EvilNed]

That's why you get into space...asteroids and the scores of moons in our solar system have all the resources we could ever use (and then some). Gotta say, your overall attitude is a bit worrying, sort of "we can't do it so why bother"? And you don't need warp drive to travel in space if you are patient and willing to explore the other options that will become available in the future. Worrying? Our resources are depleting, our population is growing larger and so is the demand for food and housing- something which we cannot provide them with unless we lower our own living standards - and stop wasting money on space travel which gives us little to nothing in return. Seriously, millions of people are starving worldwide and we don't have the resources to feed them all or house them all. If we can't do that, how do you propose we traverse infinite space?

[Wyldwraith]

Worrying? Our resources are depleting, our population is growing larger and so is the demand for food and housing- something which we cannot provide them with unless we lower our own living standards - and stop wasting money on space travel which gives us little to nothing in return. Seriously, millions of people are starving worldwide and we don't have the resources to feed them all or house them all. If we can't do that, how do you propose we traverse infinite space? Though I acknowledge the facts you mention, IE: Millions of people worldwide lack food/shelter/medical treatment, I disagree with your conclusion that the First World/developed nations somehow OWE the Third World still more humanitarian aid. I adamantly deny the statement that all the prosperous nations need to substantially decrease the individual citizens' quality of life to provide that aid. For decades, the developed nations of this planet have continued to pour assistance in the form of food, clothing, medical aid and even shelter constructions into the voracious Black Hole which is much of Africa, and parts of both South America and Southern Asia. The result of said "humanitarian aid" have been uniformly catastrophic. Beginning with Africa, regular massive food and medicine supply distribution from the developed nations. The result: Combined with the EVIL Papal propaganda against condoms/birth control, and the natural tendency towards large families in communities that rely on subsistence-level farming and ranching, you get an ever-expanding population explosion. Traditionalist elements in many African societies doggedly resist attempts to educate the populace beyond the rudimentary basics. Bottom line: An ever-growing populace refuses to abandon traditional/archaic practices. Unable to support more than a small fraction of their population with domestic agricultural output, and no domestic production of the medicines required to combat the pathogens and parasites endemic to most of the continent, African dependence on the West increases with every passing year even as huge numbers of Africans continue to die of HIV/AIDS, numerous other STD-based complications, and a wide variety of additional mortality-increasing factors. Conclusion: Rather than a rapid yet significantly smaller famine-induced die-off of the weak, sick and the very young/very old. Followed by a natural resetting of regional populations to levels which can be supported by available domestic resources. Instead we've caused milder but far more protracted famines and periodic regional pandemics that will continue so long as we continue to introduce fresh infusions of supplies. You can't cheat Malthusian Economics. All you do when you pump regular stockpiles of food and medicine into a population with next to no supporting infrastructure is artificially inflate the population to the point the entire culture becomes totally dependent on outside assistance. Charity begins at home. With nearly all of the developed nations suffering from nationwide long-term economic troubles including huge numbers of unemployed persons, continuing to let other countries cling like ticks bloated on our blood when we can't take care of OUR OWN populations is crazy. Worse, it's morally unjustifiable. Everyone bitches about American interference in the affairs of other nations.....UNLESS that interference is in the form of a huge loan the debtor nation knows they can default on consequence-free, or a huge pile of "humanitarian aid." It isn't realistic to say "You aren't entitled to any input in how this nation is run, but you're morally obligated to continue giving said nation free money, food and medicine, even when everything's gone to shit in your own country." A big NO to Global Communism.

[EvilNed]

Without getting into a way too off-topic discussion, all I'm gonna say is that if you don't see something fundamentally wrong with the world as both you and I describe it, then I'm kinda surprised really. Let's fix that first. If there's something left over then maybe we can start looking outwards. But space is just vast, huge and humungus. All I can say at this point is that I bet all I've got, and then some, that we'll never, ever leave the solar system. Sorry. Ain't gonna happen. Not enough resources on this planet for that to happen.

[Legion2213]

Without getting into a way too off-topic discussion, all I'm gonna say is that if you don't see something fundamentally wrong with the world as both you and I describe it, then I'm kinda surprised really. Let's fix that first. If there's something left over then maybe we can start looking outwards. But space is just vast, huge and humungus. All I can say at this point is that I bet all I've got, and then some, that we'll never, ever leave the solar system. Sorry. Ain't gonna happen. Not enough resources on this planet for that to happen. Find me one top of the line scientist who backs you up regarding your "not enough resources to get off world" claim. There are more resources than you can imagine within arms reach of this world. Thankfully, most people don't follow your line of thinking...which is why we have a technological, industrialised civilisation with hundreds of satelites in orbit and have already taken our first steps off world. Hell, as for leaving the soloar system, Voyager is on it's way...primitive 1960's tech pushed on past the "termination shock" back in 2005 and is pushing it's way out of the heliosphere (all in a measly 3 decades years). Other probes and unmanned ships will overtake said probe one day...faster, more efficient, better power sources. http://www.nasa.gov/vision/universe/...yager_agu.html

[Wyldwraith]

I agree with you Legion, but Ned's finite-resource argument is only secondary to his primary position. Namely, that the developed nations have no right in his opinion to act solely in their own interests so long as millions of individuals in the undeveloped nations lack the necessities of life. In other words Legion, even if you present conclusively irrefutable evidence that we do in fact have the resources to continue advancing the space exploration program, from what I gather from EvilNed's posts he's saying that's irrelevant because those resources should be distributed to the undeveloped nations instead of being used by and for the developed nations which shouldered the financial burden of harvesting, refining and ultimately producing the goods derived from those resources. I grasp Ned's position conceptually, but vehemently disagree with it if for no other reason than cold-blooded pragmatism. Put in the most cold-blooded of intellectual terms: By EvilNed's own admission our planetary resources are finite. We can either expend those limited resources in building an orbital infrastructure that will serve as a stepping stone to accessing the vast resources of the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter, or we can temporarily continue to keep nations with populations vastly larger than their domestic resources can support afloat until our resources run dry. One path leads potentially to a future of progress and continuing growth and development for our species. The other ultimately results in the stagnation and eventual extinction of the species as we continue to fall below the resources required to sustain us. Resource redistribution looks good in some ways on paper (much like the rest of Communism), but in practice it simply drags EVERYONE down to the lowest possible condition. No one wants to hear it, but there are WAY TOO DAMNED MANY PEOPLE on this planet, and it's only getting more crowded as people continue to live longer and longer lifespans, while birthrates remain constant or continue increasing. If we try to provide for everyone, in the end we won't be able to help ANYONE. Isn't our first duty to the survival of the species? IMHO, gaining access to the massive resources of the rest of our Solar System is our only hope of moving beyond the zero-sum game that life confined to our planet of origin has been. It's a truism that "What ceases to grow, begins to die", but that doesn't mean it isn't still true all the same. Whether we make it beyond the Solar System will depend on how well we do with what our Solar System has to offer. Just my opinion, but this morbid obsession with killing each other by the thousands and tens of thousands over nationalist and quasi-religious bullshit is going to get us extinct if we don't knock it off. Just my .02

[SymphonicX]

WW - as much as I love your posts - you are a harsh individual!!!! added 29/07: also, where are these left wing credentials dude? I've never met many left wingers who'd purport to value an economy over human life...

[Terran]

Well.... Whoever can conquer space outside a planet. can conquer a planet. Whoever can conquer space outside a planetary system controls a system. And there are entities which would be exceedingly suited for space travel. In the end there can be only one!

[Publius]

And now, a message from EvilNed's ancestor, Thok-Ug: Tribe never reach Moon. Would take many many many times more energy than flaking a chip off piece of obsidian to make axe. Also, not enough resources in whole forest to make pile of rocks and logs tall enough to reach moon. Also, would probably take cooperation with ones not of Tribe, and they are not True Men. Besides, would make Man in Moon angry! No, reaching Moon even more impossible than crossing Great River. Will never, ever, ever, ever, ever happen. Ever. Thok-Ug has spoken!

[EvilNed]

Hey, all I'm saying is that within 20 or 30 years our living standards will be lowered drastically. The oil is running out, food won't get delivered to your stores anymore and we'll basicly jump back 100 years technology-wise but still keep our fantastic science. Our resources are very finite, as you're all aware. And if you think there's enough stuff here to get us to Mars and then mine then fine, try doing that. Meanwhile we'll starve back here and then crumble from underneath. Prove me wrong. I wish, I wish, I wish somebody, in time, will. I want us to go to Mars and beyond. But if you think this high standard of living we're enjoying now is going to last, you're just fooling yourself. I'm not saying the world is gonna end. But I am saying that the oil is going to peak. When that happens, you can kiss cheap energy goodbye.

[Publius]

Hey, all I'm saying is that within 20 or 30 years our living standards will be lowered drastically. Do you have any idea how many times that prediction has been made over the centuries? Our resources are very finite, as you're all aware. And if you think there's enough stuff here to get us to Mars and then mine then fine, try doing that. Two important resources for reaching space are 1) hydrogen and 2) oxygen. I'm not saying the world is gonna end. But I am saying that the oil is going to peak. When that happens, you can kiss cheap energy goodbye. Assuming no future changes in technology. What you predict is a possibility, certainly. But generally, these kinds of assessments are dramatically affected by technological advancements. Algae biodiesel could replace the kind from underground with many fewer drawbacks than the corn-based kind. Usable fusion power may be developed any time between a decade from now and never. Other solutions may present themselves that we can't imagine yet.

[EvilNed]

Do you have any idea how many times that prediction has been made over the centuries? No, how many? And when? I've never heard it before. I can imagine the people of Rome predicted it back in the day - and when it turned out to be correct. Two important resources for reaching space are 1) hydrogen and 2) oxygen. Well, yeah for getting the rocket from point A (the ground) to point B (actual space) there's alot of hydrogen and oxygen required. But for getting the rocket built, assembled, transported and prepared for point A there's a shit, shit, shit, shitload of oil and numerous other resources involved. While you are techinically correct, you're simply ignoring all the logistical aspects behind an actual launch. If it were that easy (using only hydrogen and oxygen) don't you think we'd do it a lot more often than what we already are? Assuming no future changes in technology. What you predict is a possibility, certainly. But generally, these kinds of assessments are dramatically affected by technological advancements. Algae biodiesel could replace the kind from underground with many fewer drawbacks than the corn-based kind. Usable fusion power may be developed any time between a decade from now and never. Other solutions may present themselves that we can't imagine yet. Agreed, there may very well be advanced in technology. But the chances of these resources becoming publically available before oil simply dries out are very, very small. The oil is thinning out. And what are we doing to replace with? Nada. Zip. Nothing. That's not really the kind of thinking that goes hand in hand with "space exploration".

[Wyldwraith]

A few points I'd like to make, 1) While our energy-base-resources are indeed finite, Oil is no longer our ONLY option. We are within perhaps a decade of phasing oil-as-gasoline out of the automobile/personal transportation industry, and something like 15-18yrs from ECONOMICALLY (they're already physically/scientifically viable) VIABLE Diesel-substitutes for our 18-wheelers and other road-based industrial transportation. 2) Never, EVER underestimate the power of Moore's Law and Butler's Network Corollary. Computers continue to double in performance every (24) months, in conjunction with the doubling of information being transmitted via a fiber optic cable occurring every (9) months. More powerful computers affect a VAST number of technology-related factors. Ie: Better/more powerful computers = steady increases in new internal combustion engine design efficiency on the small scale, up to increased performance and decreased cost in the design of new power-plants (for example) on the large scale. This trend extends into an ever-widening technological base. 3) Yes, IF we haven't made very serious strides to eliminate or significantly reduce our energy dependence on oil in the next 2-3 decades, we're going to experience severe problems in maintaining much of our infrastructure in the developed nations. The same can be said of eliminating our self-destructive practices of maintaining the inflated populations of the undeveloped nations. 4) The outcome of the foreseen diminishing of Oil supplies and other various important resources and the resulting impact on the societies of the developed nations is by no means a foregone conclusion. 4a) Ending "humanitarian aid" to undeveloped nations, and stopping the IDIOTIC practice of building up the national infrastructure of nations we've engaged in military conflict with are critical. Just these two practices, if eliminated or significantly reduced may have an incredibly positive impact on our efforts to overcome oil dependency and move onwards, into a future where renewable and/or plentiful energy-sources take Oil's place as a driving industrial force. Finally, most of the basis for near-future doom and gloom prophecies is based on the assumption that it is inevitable and unavoidable that no significant game-changing scientific/technological breakthroughs will occur between now and the beginning of major troubles as Oil bottoms out. I believe it to be the height of foolishness to disregard the human ingenuity that has kept us going for centuries. Just my .02