Will a pandemic bring down civilisation?

[Neil]

No matter what or how it happens it's virtually garanteed that the human race won't be here forever. We don't like to think so but whether it's from nature or whether we do it ourselves no species lasts forever. Depends... If we get another one or two thousand years before being dealt a bum-hand, we could well being independant of earth, therefore meaning we're far more safe from a single event wiping us out...

[Legion2213]

Depends... If we get another one or two thousand years before being dealt a bum-hand, we could well being independant of earth, therefore meaning we're far more safe from a single event wiping us out... Indeed, that's why space travel and colonization is so important, any race that hits the stars massively improves it's survival chances with every world they settle on...I always get angry at those folks who moan about the billions spent of space research that should "go to the hungry third world folk". They are unable to see the big picture and lack long term vision. As for humans being totally wiped out by a pandemic, I don't see it, we were down to about 10.000 souls after the last ice age I believe. Even something that wiped out 99.9% of the human population would leave us in a reasonable position to start over (IMO).

[MoonSylver]

As for humans being totally wiped out by a pandemic, I don't see it, we were down to about 10.000 souls after the last ice age I believe. Even something that wiped out 99.9% of the human population would leave us in a reasonable position to start over (IMO). True. But what we're talking about is the collapse of civilization, not necessarily the extinction of the species. We could start over, maybe even rebuild to what was, perhaps even something better or at least different, but with that kind of death toll society as we know it would collapse because there just wouldn't be enough manpower to support the complex infrastructure we've created.

[Legion2213]

True. But what we're talking about is the collapse of civilization, not necessarily the extinction of the species. We could start over, maybe even rebuild to what was, perhaps even something better or at least different, but with that kind of death toll society as we know it would collapse because there just wouldn't be enough manpower to support the complex infrastructure we've created. Yeah, fair comment, I should have read the article instead of just jumping in after Neils last post. It doesn't paint a pretty picture.

[Neil]

True. But what we're talking about is the collapse of civilization, not necessarily the extinction of the species. We could start over, maybe even rebuild to what was, perhaps even something better or at least different, but with that kind of death toll society as we know it would collapse because there just wouldn't be enough manpower to support the complex infrastructure we've created. True, but if it happens in a hundred years or so, a serious restart will be VERY hard with no fossil fuels to give us a leg up technology wise!

[CornishCorpse]

Unless we have the technology to make synthetic fuels on a mass scale?

[sandrock74]

I think what we have to look out for is when we start sending astronauts to Mars. Who knows what they could pick up there and bring back here with them? Not being a naturally occuring earth disease, we could be in big trouble. As for anything earth born, humanity will always survive. Some people will always have a natural immunity ala Typhoid Mary or the Black Plague. Its something of a miracle that humanity survived the Plague as it killed off HALF the population of Europe! Imagine if that happened now? Half the worlds population would be 3 BILLION people dieing! Bodies would have to be burned in the streets to keep additional disease down to a minimum. Jobs all over the place would be abandoned. Economies would crumble. Thats exactly what happened during the Black Plague and humanity still survived. Some people caught the Plague and survived it (although they were never really the same afterwards) and some people never caught it. You got to love them anti-bodies!

[Neil]

Unless we have the technology to make synthetic fuels on a mass scale? Technology is a house of cards... It's rather hard to put the top layer on without the bottom ones there to stand it on...

[_liam_]

It's strange to think that, advances in medical science aside, our civilisation has actually never been more vulnerable to a pandemic than it is right now... The only cards we really have to play in such a crisis are medical science & communications technology, but all that is dependant on society's infrastructure, which would topple easily under the toll of a few million deaths. Scary stuff indeed

[DeadJonas190]

I think what we have to look out for is when we start sending astronauts to Mars. Who knows what they could pick up there and bring back here with them? Not being a naturally occuring earth disease, we could be in big trouble. And on that same note, what are the chances that an alien virus or what not is even compatable with our biology? Like you said, it could be devestating if it were compatable with us, but chances would be slim that it would be.

[Kaos]

H15N is mostly fatal... Is there even a vaccine for it, yet alone a mutated strain that's lept to humans? http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0124185522.htm Leave it to Neil to worry like a ninny. Just relax and breathe deeply.

[Neil]

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0124185522.htm Leave it to Neil to worry like a ninny. Just relax and breathe deeply. Sorry, how is that suppose to put my mind at rest? It doesn't help with H5N1 (yet)? Unless I misread it?

[Kaos]

Sorry, how is that suppose to put my mind at rest? It doesn't help with H5N1 (yet)? Unless I misread it? Given the following quote from the article: Acambis also tested whether an M2-based vaccination could protect ferrets from a deadly infection by the highly lethal avian H5N1 influenza strain "Vietnam 2004". 70% of the vaccinated animals survived, while all the placebo-treated animals succumbed to the viral infection. Michael Watson, Acambis Executive Vice President, Research & Development, said: “M2e is one of the most discussed new approaches for universal influenza vaccination. These are exciting data as they show that our ACAM-FLU-ATM vaccine can generate a robust M2e antibody response and that M2e-based vaccines can protect against H5N1 avian influenza. We believe that these results confirm we have an approach worthy of further development.” Oh, yeah. I think there is reason for hope along this line of research. Is it a cure? Nope. Does it look like they may be on to something? Most certainly.

[Neil]

Given the following quote from the article: Oh, yeah. I think there is reason for hope along this line of research. Is it a cure? Nope. Does it look like they may be on to something? Most certainly. 30% attrition is terrible!!! Given a disease is being passed around at a good rate, even if just 10% of people who catch it die, society would really take a big kick to the knackers! Let's put it this way! The shops would be closed and our cupboards would be empty! Now if 1 in 3 die! And this is assuming of course the vaccine is around in large enough numbers to help... And how long it remains effective... ie: It might just slow the process down, so you die next year instead of this year (the next time it comes around the planet).

[Kaos]

I guess you are fixated on the raw score of one test. Where I am looking at the progress made that will lead to other tests and possibly greater successes. I also bet there was no attempt to treat the infected animals which kind of skews the mortality figures.