Space Post - Why wasn't Arthur C. Clarke right?

[Neil]

In his novel's he suggested by now we'd have nice big ships going to Jupiter and bases in orbit and on the moon...

In reality we've move on only a small step from the lunar landings...

I wonder if we'd not messed around with all that Cold War nonsense, and other stupid conflcits, and as a species really put our heads togethor, if we could have progressed as far as Clarke suggested we could those pst 40 years!?

[dracenstein]

I think Clarke himself said that if it hadn't been for the Vietnam War, more would have been done in the space.

[Neil]

I think Clarke himself said that if it hadn't been for the Vietnam War, more would have been done in the space.

To think 40 year on, we're even just battling to get back to the moon at the moment :(

[slickwilly13]

Did Nixon stop the space program? I cannot remember.

[Eyebiter]

Why was AC wrong?We currently lack a reliable method to deliver large cargo payloads into orbit. The space elevator is on hold pending research in materials technology, the space shuttle program failed to live up to it's program goals, cancellation of the Saturn V program which leaves the US without a large booster rocket.Had the US continued to sink money into the Apollo program then perhaps we might be farther down the road toward building a permanent space station at L5. But even then there are advancements in fusion power, extended storage batteries, living in zero g environments, waste recycling, asteroid mining, orbital refining, vacuum construction, and radiation shielding required to build large scale space ships.

[Neil]

Why was AC wrong?We currently lack a reliable method to deliver large cargo payloads into orbit. The space elevator is on hold pending research in materials technology, the space shuttle program failed to live up to it's program goals, cancellation of the Saturn V program which leaves the US without a large booster rocket.Had the US continued to sink money into the Apollo program then perhaps we might be farther down the road toward building a permanent space station at L5. But even then there are advancements in fusion power, extended storage batteries, living in zero g environments, waste recycling, asteroid mining, orbital refining, vacuum construction, and radiation shielding required to build large scale space ships.

Why was he wrong? Because we're not in space ships, manned by people, landing on moons of Jupiter...

My real question is, how much of that is our fault? ie: If we had really gone all out on space exploration, rather than working out the best way to kill each other and other such stupid foleys, could we have been in that position now instead of still trying to even our first (small) space station in orbit?

[Mike70]

We currently lack a reliable method to deliver large cargo payloads into orbit. The space elevator is on hold pending research in materials technology, the space shuttle program failed to live up to it's program goals, cancellation of the Saturn V program which leaves the US without a large booster rocket.

the Constellation program will take care of most of that. the Ares V rocket is actually much more powerful than the Saturn V and will have the ability to deliver a 65,000 kg payload into lunar orbit (vs. 47,000 kg for the saturn V) and can deliever a 130,000 kg payload to earth orbit (vs. 118,000 kg for the saturn V). couple that will the orion command module and the altair lunar lander (both of which are much bigger than their apollo counterparts).

in fact the altair lunar lander is going to come in 3 varieties: sortie (4 astronauts for one week on the moon), outpost (capable of housing astronauts on the moon for up to 6 months), and cargo ( a heavy resupply version).

first test launch of the Ares is scheduled for may of next year.

i think the major flaw in the apollo program was the lack of clear, attainable follow-on goals. sure the main goal was to put humans on the moon. done. then what??






and as far as Arthur Clarke goes: he was an amazing writer and thinker but still what he had to say were just the musings of one man and shouldn't be used to indicate success or failure of the world's space programs.

[capncnut]

In his novel's he suggested by now we'd have nice big ships going to Jupiter and bases in orbit and on the moon...
Actually in 3001: The Final Odyssey, he moved forward the Discovery mission till mid-2040's because he knew he was way off with his earlier predictions. He even gave Frank Poole a new birth year of 1996, which would be impossible as the first book/movie was set in 2001.

[dracenstein]

So 2001 is going to be retitled?

[Neil]

So 2001 is going to be retitled?

Can you imagine if Lucas has done those films/books? Just imagine how much he would have messed around with them over the years :rockbrow:

[capncnut]

So 2001 is going to be retitled?
Nah, it's just retroactive continuity. Clarke has often stated that each story is set within it's own parallel universe.

[Legion2213]

In his novel's he suggested by now we'd have nice big ships going to Jupiter and bases in orbit and on the moon...

In reality we've move on only a small step from the lunar landings...

I wonder if we'd not messed around with all that Cold War nonsense, and other stupid conflcits, and as a species really put our heads togethor, if we could have progressed as far as Clarke suggested we could those pst 40 years!?

I thought the cold war drove the space race?

Anyways, Clarke wasn't so much wrong, it's down to the super powers not following through with the programes they had going in the 60's...if they'd carried on the momentum from the Apollo missions, we probably would have bases on the moon and possibly would've had a few manned Mars landings at least.

[Mike70]

In reality we've move on only a small step from the lunar landings...


i disagree a bit. yes human spaceflight has been into to earth orbit since 1972 but the exploration of the solar system by progressively more sophisticated, faster space craft has continued.

the galileo mission to jupiter, cassini to saturn, megellan to venus, messenger to mercury, and the all out assault on mars in the last 10 years (that will continue for at least the next 10-15 years) have all provided some very valuable information and some shattering discoveries. by the way, the mars missions all have one over arcing goal - where is the best place to put humans on mars to get the most out of such a mission.

now we have new horizons (the fastest spacecraft ever to leave earth orbit) well on its way to pluto.

space exploration hasn't been stagnant in anyway at all. project constellation is going to open up the moon and mars to human exploration (the moon in 2019, mars a few years after).

[Neil]

i disagree a bit. yes human spaceflight has been into to earth orbit since 1972 but the exploration of the solar system by progressively more sophisticated, faster space craft has continued.

the galileo mission to jupiter, cassini to saturn, megellan to venus, messenger to mercury, and the all out assault on mars in the last 10 years (that will continue for at least the next 10-15 years) have all provided some very valuable information and some shattering discoveries. by the way, the mars missions all have one over arcing goal - where is the best place to put humans on mars to get the most out of such a mission.

now we have new horizons (the fastest spacecraft ever to leave earth orbit) well on its way to pluto.

space exploration hasn't been stagnant in anyway at all. project constellation is going to open up the moon and mars to human exploration (the moon in 2019, mars a few years after).Agreed... But I have to wonder if we'd really try to apply ourselves (as a species) could we have got near to what Clarke suggested we could achieve in 40 years...

[Neil]

I guess what's depressing is someone who was around to witness the Wright brothers make the first airplane flight, could have been around to witness the first man in space and even the first man on the moon!! All that advance in just ONE lifetime!

Shame things seemed to have slowed down within my lifetime...

I suspect I will not see a man on Mars, or even a probe in any of the suspected oceans on other planets/moons in our solar system :(

[Legion2213]

I guess what's depressing is someone who was around to witness the Wright brothers make the first airplane flight, could have been around to witness the first man in space and even the first man on the moon!! All that advance in just ONE lifetime!

Shame things seemed to have slowed down within my lifetime...

I suspect I will not see a man on Mars, or even a probe in any of the suspected oceans on other planets/moons in our solar system :(

I'm pretty certain they are planning to probe the ocean that is said to lie under the surface of Europa...it would be way cool to get some pics back of things swimming about near volcanic vents and stuff. :)

[Neil]

I'm pretty certain they are planning to probe the ocean that is said to lie under the surface of Europa...it would be way cool to get some pics back of things swimming about near volcanic vents and stuff. :)

Planning is one things... Doing is another... I honestly don't expect a probe to the Europa's (possible) ocean, or those potentially on some of the moons of Saturn within the next 15-20yrs at the earliest... 30+ wouldn't surprise me either...