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View Full Version : apophis now 1 in 250,000 chance to strike the earth...


Mike70
16-Oct-2009, 11:56 PM
during any of its close approaches this century. the probability of a strike had been as high as 2.7 % but after daily measurements of apophis' orbit, that chance now stands at about 1 in 250,000.

http://www.spaceflightnow.com/news/n0910/11apophis/
Danny
17-Oct-2009, 12:57 AM
during any of its close approaches this century. the probability of a strike had been as high as 2.7 % but after daily measurements of apophis' orbit, that chance now stands at about 1 in 250,000.

http://www.spaceflightnow.com/news/n0910/11apophis/

isnt that less than 2.7%?, forgive me if im having a retard moment but would'nt that mean its decreased?
Mike70
17-Oct-2009, 01:07 AM
isnt that less than 2.7%?, forgive me if im having a retard moment but would'nt that mean its decreased?

yes, it has decreased. the 2.7% number is from very early on when there wasn't a lot of data about apophis' orbit. as its orbit has been refined again and again, the odds have steadily gone down to where they are now.

so 2.7% was the maximum chance when apophis was first discovered on an orbit that could potentially intersect earth's. that was when there was a lot of room for error in the calculations of where it was headed.
Danny
17-Oct-2009, 01:16 AM
So the news is something bad is less likely to happen?
clanglee
17-Oct-2009, 01:37 AM
Still not odds I like. . .the Earth is more likely to be destroyed by an asteroid than I am likely to win the lotto. Something sucks about that. . . . .
Mike70
17-Oct-2009, 01:58 AM
So the news is something bad is less likely to happen?

yep. far, far less likely to happen. looks like the world will be safe for my early old age and your middle age years.:lol:
AcesandEights
17-Oct-2009, 11:07 PM
Still not odds I like. . .the Earth is more likely to be destroyed by an asteroid than I am likely to win the lotto. Something sucks about that. . . . .

Jesus, if that isn't depressing :(
blind2d
19-Oct-2009, 12:22 AM
Ahhh. But there's still December 2012 to look forward to, yeah? - Murdoc
Funny name for an asteroid... If it were me to do the naming, I'd have gone with sumfink like... Rocky... or Aloatious... -2D
Skippy911sc
19-Oct-2009, 02:23 PM
What about Planet X???????:stunned:
Mike70
19-Oct-2009, 02:36 PM
What about Planet X???????:stunned:

:lol:

nibiru? you've just hit on one of my very favorite crackpot theories ever.
AcesandEights
19-Oct-2009, 03:05 PM
:lol:

nibiru?

I forgot about Nibiru and ran across it again wiki-surfing last week. Jesus... there really aren't words to convey my thoughts about the 'theory'.
Mike70
19-Oct-2009, 03:20 PM
I forgot about Nibiru and ran across it again wiki-surfing last week. Jesus... there really aren't words to convey my thoughts about the 'theory'.

i think it can be summed up in 3 short statements.

1. an object the supposed size of nibiru approaching the inner solar system would be visible to the naked eye.

2. nibiru would be perturbing the shit out of the orbits of the outer planets.

3. the orbit nibiru is supposedly in wouldn't be stable and jupiter would most likely eject it from the solar system.
MoonSylver
20-Oct-2009, 12:53 AM
What about Planet X???????:stunned:

http://www.millionmonkeytheater.com/moviepics/ghidorah1.JPG

What about it?!?!

:D