The Next Ten Years - Opposing Viewpoints

[BillyRay]

Saw two articles on Boing Boing discussing the current trends in technology, economy and society, and what we should expect to see in the next 10 years.

The first article is from Douglas Coupland via the Daily Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/a-radical-pessimists-guide-to-the-next-10-years/article1750609/page1/

An excerpt:


1) It's going to get worse

No silver linings and no lemonade. The elevator only goes down. The bright note is that the elevator will, at some point, stop.

2) The future isn't going to feel futuristic

It's simply going to feel weird and out-of-control-ish, the way it does now, because too many things are changing too quickly. The reason the future feels odd is because of its unpredictability. If the future didn't feel weirdly unexpected, then something would be wrong.

6) The middle class is over. It's not coming back

Remember travel agents? Remember how they just kind of vanished one day? That's where all the other jobs that once made us middle-class are going - to that same, magical, class-killing, job-sucking wormhole into which travel-agency jobs vanished, never to return. However, this won't stop people from self-identifying as middle-class, and as the years pass we'll be entering a replay of the antebellum South, when people defined themselves by the social status of their ancestors three generations back. Enjoy the new monoclass!


But, Gawd Bless 'em, Boing Boing came back with a far more optimistic view:

http://www.boingboing.net/2010/10/11/a-happy-mutants-guid.html



1) It's going to get awesomely weirder

You're going see more amusing, charming, disturbing, and novel things than you ever dreamed possible. ZOMG will happen non-stop. As jaded as you might think you'll get, there'll often be something dropping your jaw.

2) It's going to get hopelessly cuter

Lest you mistake this as treacly sentimentalism, remember - cuteness is a powerful mask for whatever can get behind it. Adorableness will be pervasive, disarming, and irresistible. Hug, but verify.

3) Memes are going mainstream

Every day new memes will appear, others will be repeated, remixed, and amplified, and others will fade. Cultural in-jokes will abound. Your grandma will send you image macros for the lulz.


Pound for Pound, my experience with the 21st Century reflects the Happy Mutant view of things. While the larger world may get rougher, we can build communities, share resources, Do It Ourselves, and generally enjoy the fun side-effects of living in the future...

What do you think?

[ProfessorChaos]

i'm kind of pessimistic about things. being brainwashed by the military kind of ruined my perceptions on america in general. people are more self-absorbed and delusional than ever, in my opinion. obesity rates are sky-rocketing, cancer rates are up, the rich are getting richer while the poor are getting poorer, needless technology is making us even more lazy and inept, political tensions are ratcheted up pretty high, our national debt is off the charts, we've got two wars going on, social unrest is in the air, traditional family values are pretty much a thing of the past, etc.

while i try to remain optimistic for the future with consideration to the kind of world my nieces, nephews, and maybe someday my own children will grow up in, i think the world's in a pretty fucked up state (always has been, i suppose) and the powers that be just keep shoving new gadgets in our faces (e-books, laptops, smartphones, etc) and hope we don't pay too much attention while the real world just gets more fucked up.vthat's a big issue with me, personally, as far as technology goes. it's kinda similar to a thread jp started about the excessive gizmo's and gadgets we have (and how everyone feels like we can't live without them). while i do enjoy things like my xbox, hdtv, ipod, etc...i feel they are really just a big hindrance to our individual betterment. it's true that technology can be a great thing (medical advances, for instance), but when we are more concerned with how many stupid distracting features we can put in our phones rather than worthwhile endeavors, it's a solid indicator of how out-of-touch with reality we really are at times.

[Mike70]

i'm kind of pessimistic about things. being brainwashed by the military kind of ruined my perceptions on america in general. people are more self-absorbed and delusional than ever, in my opinion. obesity rates are sky-rocketing, cancer rates are up, the rich are getting richer while the poor are getting poorer, needless technology is making us even more lazy and inept, political tensions are ratcheted up pretty high, our national debt is off the charts, we've got two wars going on, social unrest is in the air, traditional family values are pretty much a thing of the past, etc.
.


preach on. i am of the opinion that video games are one of the worst things that has ever happened to children. no child under the age of 15 should be allowed near a video game console. why? BECAUSE CHILDREN NEED TO PLAY OUTSIDE. that is something that i hardly ever see most kids do anymore. no, they want to sit mindless in front a TV being stimulated by inane games, all the while getting fatter and more stupid as the seconds pass. why are there so many fat kids in america? look no fucking farther than the video game console.

parents that let their kids sit in front of those things day in and day out ought to be fucking ashamed of themselves but that's the bitch: THEY AREN'T.

now, don't get your panties in a twist. i own a game console myself but i am a 40 year adult. i'm through those crucial developmental years of 7-14. i exercise and get outside regularly.

as for cell phones, the less said about those the better. that is one game i refuse to play.

[Tricky]

preach on. i am of the opinion that video games are one of the worst things that has ever happened to children. no child under the age of 15 should be allowed near a video game console. why? BECAUSE CHILDREN NEED TO PLAY OUTSIDE. that is something that i hardly ever see most kids do anymore. no, they want to sit mindless in front a TV being stimulated by inane games, all the while getting fatter and more stupid as the seconds pass. why are there so many fat kids in america? look no fucking farther than the video game console.

parents that let their kids sit in front of those things day in and day out ought to be fucking ashamed of themselves but that's the bitch: THEY AREN'T.

now, don't get your panties in a twist. i own a game console myself but i am a 40 year adult. i'm through those crucial developmental years of 7-14. i exercise and get outside regularly.

as for cell phones, the less said about those the better. that is one game i refuse to play.

This! Even in the UK you rarely see kids playing out anymore, when I was a kid me & all my mates used to be out climbing trees, building dens or go-karts, riding our bikes everywhere, causing mischief, playing army or having "battles" with our plastic soldiers in sandpits etc! I did get a megadrive for christmas when i was around 10/11 and I did spend a fair bit of time playing it, but my parents would always make me switch it off after a couple of hours to go play outside! Games back then were fairly short lived or repetative though, and you got bored of them fairly quickly, whereas now with online gaming, social networking and games with 100+ hours gameplay in them, it would be quite easy to never go out & never use your own imagination for anything.

[LouCipherr]

i'm kind of pessimistic about things. being brainwashed by the military kind of ruined my perceptions on america in general. people are more self-absorbed and delusional than ever, in my opinion. obesity rates are sky-rocketing, cancer rates are up, the rich are getting richer while the poor are getting poorer, needless technology is making us even more lazy and inept, political tensions are ratcheted up pretty high, our national debt is off the charts, we've got two wars going on, social unrest is in the air, traditional family values are pretty much a thing of the past, etc.

Queensryche got it right back in 1990 with "Spreading the Disease":

"Religion and sex are power plays
Manipulate the people for the money they pay
Selling skin, selling God
The numbers look the same on their credit cards

Politicians say "Don't do drugs"
While we pay for wars in South America ("Saudi Arabia" was used while on tour)

We're fighting fire with empty words
While the banks get fat and the poor stay poor
And the rich get rich,
The cops get paid
To look away
As the one percent rules America..."

20 years since that song was released, and has anything changed? Nope. Not a goddamn thing.

While my wife continues to call me a "pessimist" - I continue to refer to myself as a "realist." Either way, we're screwed.

[blind2d]

Yeah! All of the above I support! Woo!
But crap... the future looks bleak. Good thing I can skateboard to get my mind off it, and get some exercise simultaneously.

[AcesandEights]

While my wife continues to call me a "pessimist" - I continue to refer to myself as a "realist." Either way, we're screwed.

Pessimism is the lite beer of cynicism. :)

"Politics: A strife of interests masquerading as a contest of principles. The conduct of public affairs for private advantage."
-- Ambrose Bierce

[LouCipherr]

Pessimism is the lite beer of cynicism. :)

:shifty:

So that means I'm half way there? :D

[JDFP]

Shit people, you all are depressing.

I'm sorry, but I'm not going to buy into all this "gloom and doom" crap that has been going around in cycles since the inception of humanity. I can picture neolithic tribes of cavemen sitting around elders at a fire and the elders telling them: "You know, hunting was so much harder in our day. You kids these days are so spoiled on your new spears! You all have never had to really work for it like we did!" Times change, but it's all cyclical.

Yes, I think things are going to be getting a great deal more rough before they begin to get better. This isn't doom and gloom either, it's just that we're about to be headed into a potential new major recessionary/potential depression period of difficulty (everyone at work along with me had a good chuckle when B. Hussein Obama made the comment that the recession was over). Things will get rougher -- but it's all about the system correcting itself for us to go forward. After things are "corrected" -- we'll start to go back into the positive swing of things again.

I've been reading a tremendous amount of William Strauss and Neil Howe recently and studying up on their generational theories (which I firmly believe and follow). From the GI Generation / Silent Generation / Baby Boomers / Generation X / Generation Y and such and so forth and the archetypes and problems that face each generation (and the cycles of history that continue to prop up -- from each cycle coming from an Awakening - High - Crisis, etc.). According to their generational theory we're about to hit another "Crisis" period of time. The last "Crisis" period we faced in society was the Great Depression/World War II, prior to that it was the Civil War, and prior to that was the American Revolution. The cycles come approximately 80 years apart from one another (granting that each generation is approximately 20 years apart). So, yes... I think we're about to be confronted by a Crisis period as well, but as long as we're conscious and frugal in our actions/attitudes it will only last for a brief period (say a decade or so) and we will be able to re-enter into another era of prosperity after the correction.

Here's a link to their web-site regarding the highly excellent "Life Source" generational theory they have:

http://www.lifecourse.com/

Here's a link to Neil Howe's excellent blog on generational theory:

http://blog.lifecourse.com/

j.p.

[BillyRay]

Wow, JD's right.

(You may wanna print and frame that, JD ol' buddy, I won't say that often.:D)



I actually had a long, reasonably inspired response, but I timed out without realising.

So here's an article about how the Singularity may not be:

http://io9.com/5661534/why-the-singularity-isnt-going-to-happen

Chins up, folks. People still need food, shelter & clothing. Copyright law doesn't keep us from creating our own culture. technology is hacked and improved constantly. So's the culture. Make your own fun. Make your own future.

(That was the gist of the longer post)

[clanglee]

Wow, JD's right.

(You may wanna print and frame that, JD ol' buddy, I won't say that often.:D)



I actually had a long, reasonably inspired response, but I timed out without realising.

So here's an article about how the Singularity may not be:

http://io9.com/5661534/why-the-singularity-isnt-going-to-happen

Chins up, folks. People still need food, shelter & clothing. Copyright law doesn't keep us from creating our own culture. technology is hacked and improved constantly. So's the culture. Make your own fun. Make your own future.

(That was the gist of the longer post)

Yeah, that's more or less my attitude about it. I have a nice healthy dose of "don't give a fuck" too, so that helps. But really. . .we have to live within this world and abide(for the most part) by it's rules. But we don't have to to let that ruin our lives. We can make our own future. No reason not to enjoy life.

[ProfessorChaos]

http://movies.yahoo.com/news/movies.ap.org/jackass-gang-pulls-biggest-stunt-with-50m-debut-ap;_ylt=AuroDP.LEQrVjGaEph99uJlfVXcA


"Jackass 3D," their latest big-screen collection of crazy stunts and antics, opened with a whopping $50 million, soaring past the debuts of their first two movies, according to studio estimates Sunday.

http://www4.images.coolspotters.com/photos/160402/idiocracy-profile.jpg

uh, i'm sorry....what were you guys saying about being optimistic?

[blind2d]

Yeah... that doesn't make a lick of sense... fuck, I love Jackass, but fuck... it's over! y'know? They're done!! Really, this movie shouldn't by rights even exist... fuck... we're screwed. The only unknown is just how screwed we are, and what that implies in the long run.

[ProfessorChaos]

here's a summary i just saw on another site that sums up my feelings on the jackass jackasses and all the jackasses who support them and what it says to me about the state of our future:


1) Jackass 3D — $50M
Fifty mill— Fifty million dollars? What... What on Earth is wrong with you, America? Fifty million dollars! "Oh, America started out OK, people saw and said interesting things. Sure there were problems, but people were going places. Now? Now they just like to watch middle-age men staple each other's balls. Oh well. On to Canada, I guess."

Fifty million dollars! There is no excusing that. None. There is no excusing Jackass 3D having the highest October opening on record. Absolutely not. We should all be ashamed of ourselves. Even if we didn't see it. Utterly ashamed. How do you think this looks to the neighbors? To the Belgiums or the Singapores or even the Frances? We must look like pain-obsessed psychopaths! Like the Japanese! It's just disgraceful. All those stank boxer-shorted young future men of America shuffling off with their hideous wheezing from petro-chemical induced asthma, insides stained by processed food. Lining up like acne-zombies to dribble themselves with pee while laughing at adults thwacking each other in the face with various things, the whole theater whooping and laughing, a hideous donkey noise. It's a horror movie.

I'm moving to the other side of the world. I'm climbing down the tunnel I dug through the center of the Earth and I have a boat waiting for me all the way down there and I'll sail away to some tiny paradise island. And when some local sees me and points a finger and says "Jackass! Jackass!", I'll shake my head and say "No. Not me. No sir, not anymore."

the author of this later relies that it was meant sarcastically, but clarity isn't something that is easy to come by for some, and this pretty much hits it out of the park as to my feelings on the subject, so i thought i'd share.

[LouCipherr]

Things will get rougher -- but it's all about the system correcting itself for us to go forward. After things are "corrected" -- we'll start to go back into the positive swing of things again.

I applaud your optimism, but being the "realist" I am....

How do we know the "system" is going to correct itself at all? How do we know things aren't going to nosedive and never recover?

I'll believe it when I see it.

Yeah, i'm one of "those people" :lol: :D

[JDFP]

I applaud your optimism, but being the "realist" I am....

How do we know the "system" is going to correct itself at all? How do we know things aren't going to nosedive and never recover?

I'll believe it when I see it.



Easy answer on this one: History.

We've had all out wars as early as 60 years ago where the world was at war. WWII was probably the closest we've come as humanity to destroying ourselves as humanity with the means to actually do it (with exception to who you ask about the NATO exercise known as Able Archer in 1983 where the Soviet Union came very close to beginning WWIII).

We've had terrible conflicts and tragedies in the past -- but we have never in the history of existence destroyed ourselves and society has always persevered even in the most harsh of situations. Rome fell -- but how this affected the average daily existence of a 'Romana' citizen is debatable.

I don't think we'll ever take a nose dive and never recover. If we do, I would say it would include nuclear war and we'd all be fucked anyway so it really wouldn't be a prescient matter at all since we'd all be dead. But, I don't see this happening on a large scale (the Cuban Missile Crisis of '62 and Able Archer in '83 I think were the two closest chances of this happening and forunately cooler heads prevailed).

Yes, I try to be an optimist -- but I'm also fairly realist as well. Ultimately, I think humanity will continue to prevail no matter how difficult things will become on a short-term basis. I know the system will correct itself and we'll continue to move forward after any tragedy because this has always happened in the past -- no matter the tragedy or destruction. The only other alternative to this is that we screw ourselves up so badly (nuclear war, which I don't think is nearly as likely as it was 30 years ago, or perhaps some astronomical natural disaster we've never seen the likes of before) that we can't move on from it.

As far as being a Negative Nancy -- I do think the next great Crisis period will involve the U.S. directly. I can see the dark clouds looming on the horizon. Long term I say we'll be fine though. Short term, I have some great concerns but know there's not a hell of alot I can do about it. It's a bit like being an average citizen in Germany in 1933. You roll with the punches and hope for the best.

j.p.

[LouCipherr]

Easy answer on this one: History.

I know the saying is always "history repeats itself" - but that's just a saying. Even though I can't think of one off the top of my head (hey, it's 9am and I haven't had my coffee yet! :lol:) there has to be plenty of instances where history did not repeat itself.

Even if things and events of current times seem the same, they aren't because there's way too many factors in each event that can greatly influence the outcome. That being said, we cannot simply justify an event with another event in the past.


Then there's the flip side of the coin:

Perhaps it is not history that repeats itself - but rather historians repeating one another. :shifty:


Then there's my negative Nancy third side of the coin (what?!):

WE'RE FUCKED! :lol:


I dunno JD - I think you're probably right - long term, we'll have to work shit out or we're all screwed, but I think short-term, we're in for some major shit-storms of serious proportions that I don't think any of us are quite ready for.

I guess we'll see. I'll do what I always do: pray for the best, expect the worst.