Will traditional television become obsolete?

[JDFP]

From another thread an interesting premise I had so I wanted to post out for others to come and share their thoughts...

I think traditional television as we know it will probably become obsolete within the next 20 years or so. This doesn't mean the major networks (NBC, FOX, CBS, ABC, CW, BBC, etc.) will no longer exist -- it just means they'll go to the web of the internet. Advertising for commercials and programming will take a very different turn over the next decade or so -- and ultimately, in about 20 years or so if not sooner, we'll no longer think of "television" as we do today.

I think eventually we'll get to a point where there is no longer any need for cable and/or satellite television. All the networks will have access via the internet for subscription streaming (Cable networks and specialty programing) and regular content screening (local news / regular programming such as network shows).

With the event of HULU/Fancast and other such programs, this is coming closer to reality every day. Ultimately, I believe this is where we are headed.

Why spend money for cable television (at higher and higher prices each year -- some folks spending $100 plus every month for services!) when we'll have HD-capable content at our fingertips on the internet?

Anyway, just some food for thought. What are your thoughts on it?

j.p.

[ProfessorChaos]

i'd have to say that it's inevitable. big cable companies and satellite companies charge ridiculous rates (after a year, usually, as you get a locked-in contract for 1 year) for some terrible programming.

i can't recall how many times i'd be bored, flip on the television, cruise through the guide for 15-20 mins, find nothing on, wonder "why am i paying for this crap?" and shut it off...either that or settle in and watch reruns of shit i already have on dvd or some deadliest catch marathon and drift off to sleep.

the only upside to having cable was being able to follow my favorite baseball team. that was always good background stuff, i could do laundry, dishes, homework, etc and watch the game. but with only maybe a dozen shows (at max, and that's being generous) that i cared to watch, why waste that money and be bombarded by commercials and shit like "survivor 16", "real world 23", "dancing with the stars" or "america's next top dog groomer"? give me a fucking break.

i admit that i'm a bit bored at times without cable, but i've been able to find all shows online in some fashion or another:shifty: and i'm actually a bit more productive without it...and i've got more money, too, which never hurts.

[Wyldwraith]

If you want to see a pro-Internet future, I suggest you look into the current proposed legislation that will allow the government to compel ISPs to block any site/Domain without even citing cause. There's a major petition circulating against this, check out Demonoid's frontpage, it has links to the petition. This is really bad stuff guys, if the gov't slides this one past us the Internet will be well on its way to becoming as regimented, mindless and lifeless as the TV networks.

And no, I'm not overstating things. They're really going for a "ISP, block Domains X,Y and Z or be shut down without legal remedy or recourse." This is some Patriot Act-style fascist monolithic government abuse, straight out of 1984 or F. 451.

Not asking you to take my word for it. Do the research yourself. All I ask is that you look beyond their immediate/current stated reason for doing this to the broad-reaching implications of such legislation. This could very well become the balance-point that people will look back to and say "This is where Big Government took direct control-by-threat of the Internet" if we remain asleep at the switch.

If you think I'm overstating matters, fine. I simply plead with all of you to look into this matter for yourselves and make up your own minds. Sadly (as I'm a Democrat), I'm forced to recognize that Obama has a major hard-on to bring the Internet to heel. I could forgive the guy a great many of his mistakes, but as someone who spends 95% of the time I'm awake day or night on the 'Net in one way or another, due to my health preventing me from leaving my family's home for several years now. When you're stuck in a bedroom 24/7/365, other than Dr. and Dentist appointments, the Internet and the Phone become lifelines that hold what remains of my mind together.

If they sanitize the 'Net and turn it into an online version of the Cable/Satellite networks it'll be the end of me, so this issue is something I take VERY seriously, and feel others who believe in Net Neutrality as I do should take equally serious.

[Tricky]

Who wants to watch TV on their PC monitor anyway? Unless of course you connect your actual TV set to the net and have some kind of wireless keyboard that doubles as a remote to use it :confused: I'm on computers most of the day at work and they give me blurry eyes & a bit of a headache after a while, certainly wouldnt want to watch TV on one! I never watch films or anything on my home PC, its just games & internet

[ProfessorChaos]

HDMI cables, trickster. i've got a 15-foot cable that easily reaches for my hdtv to my laptop which sits on the coffee table.

and even though i own night90, dawn78, and a few other great films, i've only got the dvd's, so it's a nice bonus to be able to find an hd upload and notice all kinds of subtle things you don't catch on the dvd.

for instance, were you aware that the old man they encounter in the cemetery in night90 (the "i'm sorry...i'm sorry" fellow) has pinstripes on his suit? i just discovered this the other day....and the airport scene in dawn? you can read nearly all notes posted to the door that the zombie kids come out of. pretty nifty.

[SymphonicX]

My PC is set up through my 42" LCD - I have a wireless keyboard and mouse which I use to call up movies or on demand stuff.

The whole industry is up in arms about where it's going to go - you think you've any idea? You should get yourselves down to your local broadcaster because I guarantee they haven't got the foggiest!

The main problem, at least in the UK, is synergy between the different forms of TV and the way it's offerered - public service TV like the BBC cannot offer its services on subscription based set top boxes if they aren't available for free, for instance. This is the problem with Project Canvas and Project Kangaroo - which all saw lot of controversy before being scrapped or going back to the drawing board.

Advertising has taken a major dent since the advent of internet and tivo based products which allow you to skip commercial breaks - the systems now are set up so that the main USPs of a product and it's advertisements are seen whilst fast forwarding - give that one a try, watch a programme and skip the adverts, I guarantee you'll be able to name a fair few of those products even having skipped the lot.

Synergy between pay TV and public based TV is going to be hard. Bandwidth for proper HD programming is very high, and unfortunately trumps that of most domestic bandwidth capabilities. For instance we'd never be able to stream the Mpeg2 HD stream of BBC HD through the internet. We can however, watch highly compressed flash version of this through the iplayer - which is a shame in most respects because it'll only inspire the rest of the industry to compress their content down to fit our puny little broadband lines.

As it stands we couldn't even stream an SD programme over the internet at full quality - what you get on VOD services like iplayer, skyplayer etc etc are very highly compressed, lossy versions of the original encodes. You'd be looking at 500mb for a 30 min program at SD quality.

So at the moment, whilst technology may be helping to make TV obsolete, it's got a long way to go yet.

What you'll see in the future are hybrid third party internet streaming boxes which allow people unable to hook up satellite dishes or to get cable access to stream content from the internet to the box directly - then you'll see TVs with these services built in - but that won't happen for at least another few years/

But until the internet can stream high quality, loss-less pictures across the web with no loss of connectivity, then TV will still be in our homes - unfortunately it can't get anywhere close to the processing power of a dedicated satellite reciever and the bottom line is that even with new forms of delivering content, TV will still be made and broadcast in almost exactly the same way - it'll just be delivered to your door in a different envelope, that's all.

[Tricky]

Another thing then - how much would it cost the average person for all the gear to watch this TV in this way? At a time when huge cutbacks are coming because everyone has been living beyond their means for so long, is fancy TV's, superfast broadband, lots of pointless channels & all the equipment you need to watch them going to take priority over food on the table for your average family? I for one wont be banging a load of electronic gear and subscriptions on my credit card seen as I barely watch any TV anyway these days

[Neil]

Who wants to watch TV on their PC monitor anyway? We have Boxee Box coming out which is a media player with great internet connectivity. We also have a number of manufacturers (eg: Sony) backing Google TV, again so you can watch your TV programs via the tinterweb...

[SymphonicX]

Another thing then - how much would it cost the average person for all the gear to watch this TV in this way? At a time when huge cutbacks are coming because everyone has been living beyond their means for so long, is fancy TV's, superfast broadband, lots of pointless channels & all the equipment you need to watch them going to take priority over food on the table for your average family? I for one wont be banging a load of electronic gear and subscriptions on my credit card seen as I barely watch any TV anyway these days

well BskyB saw massive up take on their services when the recession hit us - people's budgets shrink so instead of going out to the pub every night or taking the family out to theme parks, they save money by staying in doors and entertaining the family with Pay TV. Fact...!

[Tricky]

well BskyB saw massive up take on their services when the recession hit us - people's budgets shrink so instead of going out to the pub every night or taking the family out to theme parks, they save money by staying in doors and entertaining the family with Pay TV. Fact...!

Yeah I guess thats true, although not for me. My hobbies include skydiving & paintballing, so i'd rather be able to afford those than slump in front of the TV. I could quite happily get by with no TV at all! :)

[Danny]

for the most part i either watch tv shows over the internet on my 24' imac which has a better picture than my hd tv or stream it straight to my ps3 and even then there are few shows i watch right now. 30 rock,big bang theory, the walking dead, thats it really now everything else has finished for the season. mostly i dont watch television anymore.
but personally i hope gameshows die out, fukken hate gameshows.

[Mike70]

advertising dollars are the life blood of network TV. as long as companies feel that is the best way for them to promote their products it isn't going anywhere. i think it is going to take a very, very long time for that paradigm to change - much longer than anyone thinks.

[Danny]

advertising dollars are the life blood of network TV. as long as companies feel that is the best way for them to promote their products it isn't going anywhere. i think it is going to take a very, very long time for that paradigm to change - much longer than anyone thinks.

multiple pop up and pop in ads in online tv sites that require no limit or schedule beg to differ.

[blind2d]

True, good point. Now as for myself, I really don't care what happens to television as we have known it for so long, but yes, I believe a significant change will occur, and soon. But you know, television hasn't really been the same for me since they stopped showing good cartoons on Saturday mornings, so there you go.

[bassman]

I don't think so. If anything, it will become a direct connection service such as on demand. It will all be directly linked to your tv. Most likely through the internet rather than a cable.

Just because a new technology is upon us doesn't mean it's going to kill off the old entirely. Look at theaters. Everyone thought they were doomed when the TV came around. Not the case.

Besides.....I don't think many people want to watch tv through their computer. True, you can connect it to your TV but most people will still probably see that as too much work. As I said before....much like they're already doing, soon it will be a service connected from the net to your TV. But that won't kill off TV broadcasting.

[AcesandEights]

Well, can't remember the name or theory, but it looks like we're steadily moving towards that single box to modulate our entertainment and media flow. In any event, tv has already shown signs of adapting, so yes, it will change. The change will become easier as time moves on and the older generations more solidly rooted in the traditional medium are shoved to the side of the road like so much detritus.

[Danny]

Well, can't remember the name or theory, but it looks like we're steadily moving towards that single box to modulate our entertainment and media flow. In any event, tv has already shown signs of adapting, so yes, it will change. The change will become easier as time moves on and the older generations more solidly rooted in the traditional medium are shoved to the side of the road like so much detritus.

this is essentially where technology is heading, and has been heading for at least 30 years. A true hub for your media and entertainment, not a computer with a tv in it, or a tv with a computer in it but essentially we will be looking at something like a large touchscreen monitor with voice and movement recognition for up close and at a distance convenient access to media without any sort of external interface such as a keyboard and mouse or a television remote control. It will be connected at all times to the internet and offer services like hulu, netflix, espn, freeview, sky, internet browsing, movies, videogames and be something you use for your entertainment needs. Be it sitting and browsing the internet, watching videos on the inevitable next youtube equivalent or watching television without an arial, without a tv even, it'll probably included cameras and microphones to integrate the home telephone as well. -and this is something that is at most 15 years away, and even then its a stretch.

-and thats still thinking in current design terms. the long end final result for the television will be some ultra thin poster like device you literally stick up on any wall and can move around freely one of theses two jumps will come before the other, but both are equal parts of the same end result.

[ProfessorChaos]

http://aaronbasilnelson.com/wp-content/uploads/wall-e-fat-people-in-chairs.jpg

this is what i think of when reading the above post...

[Danny]

http://aaronbasilnelson.com/wp-content/uploads/wall-e-fat-people-in-chairs.jpg

this is what i think of when reading the above post...


That'd never happen, people always go straight for the 'anyone will go for convenience first' with the idea of advanced technology. but thats not true. the first selling point of something isnt convenience, its ease of control. control being the defining word here. People want to know they are absolutely in charge of what goes on in the home especially. Things like the wall-e chair seem like what people would go for when you accept this idea of "the average american consumer" as this lazy blob in an easy chair who wants everything now for no work. When really people dont want easier, they want what they want with more specifics and more freedom.
They sounds similar but theres a definite difference.

[ProfessorChaos]

by the year 2030, 75% of americans will be falling into the overweight/obese category. and everything seems to be geared towards instant gratification, just look at all the ridiculous products geared towards fat, lazy slobs (the growing majority of americans and most developing countries)...i honestly don't think we're far off from something like that. not trying to be contradictory, just stating the facts from my point of view.

[AcesandEights]

Personally, I blame The Clapper. It all started with that infernal device.

[bassman]

by the year 2030, 75% of americans will be falling into the overweight/obese category. and everything seems to be geared towards instant gratification, just look at all the ridiculous products geared towards fat, lazy slobs (the growing majority of americans and most developing countries)...i honestly don't think we're far off from something like that. not trying to be contradictory, just stating the facts from my point of view.

I'm not saying you're pulling this out of your ass, but I just don't see it happening. These days it seems more and more people are concerned with their health. It definitely feels like a more health-conscious world these days. So much so that I get dirty looks if I want to enjoy a cheeseburger or nachos. :rolleyes:

[Wyldwraith]

Well,
I don't believe we'll see much overt change in the structure of TV/program viewing until the gov't at behest of corporate interests takes direct control of Internet content. Most of you have basically said in one way or another that when TV lets you down due to lack of interesting content, you turn to either your DVDs or acquiring something to watch from online. So long as there's so much available choice due to the 'Net-provided services, a merit-based system is sort of at work. You know the networks have to hate it when large portions of the potential viewing public look elsewhere for their onscreen entertainment, since in one way or another it increases competition and the difficulty of securing advertising revenue. After all, if most of us are busy watching DVDs or stuff we got from Netflix and the like, that represents a major drop in the price they can command from advertisers through commercials.

I don't believe the corporations are blind to the fact that many of us among the last couple generations are seeking our viewing entertainment elsewhere when we feel there's nothing worth watching on TV. Logically, one would expect they either have or will have plans to prevent the loss of that commercial-advertising-based revenue.

Just my .02

[ProfessorChaos]

@bassman:

i'm not making this shit up, it's been pounded into my head as part of my degree i'm pursing. here's an illustrated map of the US and obesity trends from the CDC:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d8/CDC_Overweight_and_Obesity_map3.gif

i hope that you're right about more people being concerned about their weight and health issues, that's job security for me.;)

[bassman]

I love that the CDC is worried about obesity. Something about that just doesn't seem right to me...

[BillyRay]

Huh...you'd think Wisconsin would've gotten fatter, faster. :D

I'm beginning to think that the Zombie Virus will be some kind of mutant Type-3 Diabetes.

[JDFP]

Besides.....I don't think many people want to watch tv through their computer. True, you can connect it to your TV but most people will still probably see that as too much work. As I said before....much like they're already doing, soon it will be a service connected from the net to your TV. But that won't kill off TV broadcasting.

How is it too much work for the average person? I don't know if I'm an "average" person or not, but it all it required for me was to have an HDTV (which I do, a beautiful "50 Samsung Plasma) and an HDMI wire to hook my desktop to my television. Sure, HDTV's cost money -- but ultimately just about anyone who has a television will have an HDTV in the next decade or so as all the older televisions die off and need to be replaced. All it takes when this happens is to spend $20 on an HDMI wire to hook to the back of your computer into your television -- as I have done. It's easier than hooking up a VCR back in the 80's.

I can't remember the last time I actually watched something on regular television. There's no point. I can find almost any movie/television show ever made through the internet and with Netflix/Facast/etc. I usually see these in excellent quality or "good enough" quality for me. If I want the best, I can just get the Blu-Ray of it. The only reason I have "limited basic" cable is because I get a discount on my high-speed internet by having it (it's less to have limited basic cable with high speed internet than having just high-speed internet through Comcast).

I'm not the only one I know of who does this. Most of the people I work with generally do the same thing or something similar to this.

j.p.

[ProfessorChaos]

again, @ bassman:

how so? obesity goes hand in hand with numerous preventable diseases that account for nearly 10% of our country's medical spending such as cardiovascular disease, type-ii diabetes, atherosclerosis, etc.

additionally, the latest figures put the overweight/obese population at around 66%, that 75% is an estimate what will happen if the trend continues.

edit: not trying to be confrontational, just clarifying my point

[SymphonicX]

After all, if most of us are busy watching DVDs or stuff we got from Netflix and the like, that represents a major drop in the price they can command from advertisers through commercials.

I don't believe the corporations are blind to the fact that many of us among the last couple generations are seeking our viewing entertainment elsewhere when we feel there's nothing worth watching on TV. Logically, one would expect they either have or will have plans to prevent the loss of that commercial-advertising-based revenue.

Just my .02

Dunno about the US but for instance over here, BskyB's profit from advertising is about 10% - they're the main pay TV corp here...advertising actually doesn't pay for much of it nowdays...

[bassman]

again, @ bassman:

how so? obesity goes hand in hand with numerous preventable diseases that account for nearly 10% of our country's medical spending such as cardiovascular disease, type-ii diabetes, atherosclerosis, etc.

additionally, the latest figures put the overweight/obese population at around 66%, that 75% is an estimate what will happen if the trend continues.

edit: not trying to be confrontational, just clarifying my point

I just personally don't consider it a disease in most cases. There are a few people with health issues that build up to the obesity, but in my experience 90% of fat people are fat because they're fucking lazy and don't eat well enough. Here's an idea....put down the fork, eat some fruit, and walk around the neighborhood.

Now where's that photo of the fat lady in the chair, eating the ice cream, with "haters gonna hate"? :p

[ProfessorChaos]

well, i was just saying that obesity and physical inactivity are the primary causes and catalysts for all those diseases that i listed, so they've gotta track that shit to see what's coming down the road.

man, my fucking teachers would probably be giving me bonus points if i just directed them to this thread and said, "hey, look at all mai learnings!":clown:

okay, i'm done derailing this thread. yes, tv as we know it is dying, slowly but surely.:D

[Wyldwraith]

Hmm,
Wonder why Florida held out at 14-19% (Dark Blue) well into the mid 2000's, and only moved up to 20-24 (Tan/light beige) in the last couple years, despite the fact that Florida is full of retirees and quite sedentary for many reasons?

Heh, maybe we sweat the fat off. ;)

[krakenslayer]

I do not own a TV. I have a PC and a 24" monitor and I do all my watching on iPlayer, 4OD, Stagevu, Youtube and DVD/download.

[blind2d]

Hooray, Kraken! You're living the dream!