H5N1 Flu - Scare mongering? Serious threat?

[Neil]

If what we're being told happens, society would collapse! No transport? Failing food supplies? Millions dead?

[Adrenochrome]

I haven't heard anything about it this year.....so far....:rolleyes:
Give the media here time.....it's almost Flu season.

[MinionZombie]

First I've heard of it ... ahhh, ignorance is bliss...

I'd say half of these epidemics in waiting are scare mongering, something for the media to latch onto, and because you see it all over the news you end up thinking it's some serious sh*t, when more often than not, they just have nothing else to report. That's a problem with this 24/7 news we have these days.

[Neil]

Guess 1918 is a warning... I think that was H1N1 that mutated and killed 50m people... And an event such as that happening today with more people, and more people moving.... Could be nasty!

The moment thousands start dying, society will start to unwind... Would you go out? Would you go to work? Would you go and bye food, where anyone you pass could cough and give you a virus that could make you die by drowning in your own blood?

[Eyebiter]

From http://www.birdflubook.com

Often it's not the flu itself that will kill you, it's the secondary bacterial pneumonia infection. Essentially in the process of fighting the infection your body's own immune system responds with such vigor that it ends up destroying the lungs. In 1918 people would turn blue from lack of oxygen and start spitting up blood. Autopsy would show lungs full of bloody phlem, up to six times their usual weight due to the amount of congealed liquid.

Some peoples lungs would acutally burst internally due to the force of coughing, trapping air underneath the skin. When they would move or turn over it made a sound like the popping of a bowl of rice krispies cereal.

The current strain of H5N1 bird flu has a 50% mortality rate among those infected in Southeast Asia and China. So far the infections have been mostly found in relative proximity to poultry. However there HAVE been human to human transmissions of the flu, contrary to what is being reported in the media today.

A good science website to track the virus is http://www.recombinomics.com/whats_new.html

http://www.avianflutalk.com isn't too bad, lot of discussion about how to prepare for the pandemic. Just expect a lot scare mongering since these vendors WANT to sell their SHTF goods.


1918 pandemic spread in the USA
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/influenza/maps/images/map.gif

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/influenza/maps/images/graph.gif

[Neil]

I think H1N1 had a 1 in 10 mortality rate? And H5N1 is potentially 1 in 2? HOLY F***!

[Eyebiter]

http://www.pbs.org/wnet/secrets/case_killerflu/images/p_heliotrope-cyanosis.jpg

This illustration shows a British soldier displaying the distinctive blue coloration of heliotrope cyanosis.

Secrets of the Dead: Killer Flu
http://www.pbs.org/wnet/secrets/case_killerflu/

[Tricky]

Quick!we best pay Gordon Brown & Tony Blair more taxes so they can use their superhuman powers to stop the virus!we're going to be killed to death by climate change,floods,osama bin laden,a giant meteor & flu,not in that order :lol:

[Neil]

Are you not tempted to build up stocks/food supplies?


Quick!we best pay Gordon Brown & Tony Blair more taxes so they can use their superhuman powers to stop the virus!we're going to be killed to death by climate change,floods,osama bin laden,a giant meteor & flu,not in that order :lol:

Well... In reality one of those is a minor threat... All the rest merit concern. And I suspect the one I deem the minor threat is having the most money thrown at it...


Regarding the 1918 flu, this quite interesting... http://www.bbc.co.uk/health/conditions/encephalitislethargica1.shtml

[_liam_]

avian flu? from what i read it's very hard to contract, you need to somehow take infected bird faeces or blood into your bloodstream - what are the chances of that?

plus, not to sound like that eamon devalera guy, but there's a fishy connection between that defunct vaccine and rumsfeld's share in roche (? i think) pharmaceuticals.

[Adrenochrome]

Are you not tempted to build up stocks/food supplies?





Living here smack dab in the middle of Tornado Alley, I have a basement full of MRE's and purification tablets (for water, of course) - (weapons and plenty of ammo in case of a zombie outbreak or unwanted stalkers :D )
But, I don't know about this Flu thing.
I mean, "they" tried to convince us that the world was going to end a few years back with SARS - and, before that, in the US (not sure about worldwide) "they" tried to tell us the world was going to end due to West Nile Virus and to cover ourselves in DEET or bomb all mosquito nests with Napalm (or something like that).
Last winter "they" told us that H5N1 COULD be here (United States) by Sept-Oct of 2006.....This thread is the first I've heard of it since last winter.
Now, I'm not saying it can't mutate and start killing off humans....But, as it is now (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/avian-flu-humans.htm), I'm not too worried.


avian flu? from what i read it's very hard to contract, you need to somehow take infected bird faeces or blood into your bloodstream - what are the chances of that?



Check this out: Clickety click (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/qa.htm)

[MinionZombie]

lol, yes! And then Tony Blair can start up another crusade to save something else ... a practice which ironically costs the nation an incredible amount of money.

Now, hopefully we'd be able to deal with such a pandemic better than people could back in 1918, I'd hope that medical practices are a bit more advanced these days ... yes, that does include the NHS! :sneaky::lol:

[_liam_]

aye. stil not scared.

although points about the way our globalised society is structured aiding a pandemic's spread are too true. although i often think if al qaeda are so sh*t hot, why not just infect 4 guys with ebola zaire and sent them on a trip around europe? scary thought.

[mista_mo]

Wow....and I thought that Celine Dion was a deadly virus....

[coma]

"Today is a good day to die"
Worf




:confused:

[Cody]

you guys arent ALREADY stocked up on food and junk? this is a zombie forum i thought we had this covered along time ago.......

[7feet]

Look at the possible epidemiology of H5N1 and it's gets mad scary. It's not so much where it is right this second, but where the DNA of this particular virus, statistacally, is most likely to change is the bad part. Viruses mutate considerably, and fast, and this one only needs a few protein coding changes to go from human to human easily. Don't think its scare tactics. Consider the 1918 flu. It killed more generally healthy people than anything since the Black Death. And at that time, in the most densely populated areas of the US, the bases where soldiers were waiting to go off to WWI. Typhus and yellow fever were a real problem, but that flu was like carpet bombing. Name a major city around the world that doesn't have twice the population density it did then. Or 10 times.

Though I wouldn't predict it for the end of the world, if it really took hold I don't think a few hundred mil down would be unexpected. Most places have a much better public health setup than then, so you could hope it wouldn't fall apart. I sure do.

The whole problem is the vector. It spreads in the avian population from other wild birds. And birds fly everywhere. Most of the cases in people so far seem to be in those who live in real close proximity to poultry. But a few (very few, thankfully) of them have given it to other people who never saw a chicken in their lives.

There, there it gets a bit scary.

[Eyebiter]

Unfortunately certain strains of H5N1 bird flu has crossed the species barrier. Sparrows in China, cats in tibet & germany, pheasants in taiwan, tigers in Thailand, turkeys in Hong Kong. The concern is the virus can recombine with other subtypes of H5 & H7 flu in an intermediate species to produce a pandemic variant. This is why creating a vaccine is problematic - different influenza viruses from different species can rearrange to produce a new strain.

[Neil]

avian flu? from what i read it's very hard to contract, you need to somehow take infected bird faeces or blood into your bloodstream - what are the chances of that?

Well 50+ million people in 1918 might say "likely enough"...

People ARE catching avian flu. The question is - like H1N1 in 1918 - if/when it will mutate to allow it to be passed on by humans (eg: by cough/sneaze). Some experts are saying it's just one/two mutations away from achieving this. When that happens - and bearing in the H1N1 had a 1/10 mortality rate, but H5N1 has a potential 1/2 mortality rate - the **** really will hit the fan.

The question is purely down to will it make those one or two fluke mutations? If it does the world will really be in a pretty serious s**t storm!


STUPID QUESTION... Why don't the government stock pile masks? If an outbreak happened and everyone wore masks surely that would seriously cut down - or at least slow down - the spread?

[Eyebiter]

avian flu? from what i read it's very hard to contract, you need to somehow take infected bird faeces or blood into your bloodstream - what are the chances of that?

It's a fairly common disease vector

outdoors + house cat + dead bird -> you

[Neil]

Well... I think I'm going to start building up some supplies.

I do not want to be in the situation of wishing I'd done something, but just been too complacent! At the end of the day it's going to be a couple of hundred quid and a tiny bit of effort...


I think an official warning went out to americans in HK this week telling them to stockpile supplies!


What's interesting in official lists for supplies, is no mention of masks!?

[Eyebiter]

The trick is to find inexpensive items on sale and buy in bulk. Try to look for items you would normally use in cooking.

A few suggestions:

canned food - beans, soup, meat, fruit, vegetables, peanut butter, fish, spam
breakfast cereal, instant oatmeal, minute rice, sunflower seeds, popcorn, applesauce
flour, cooking oil, margarine, shortening, evaporated milk for cooking
Instant pudding, dried fruit, beef jerky, maple syrup, honey, sugar, salt, pepper, spices, salsa (in jars), condiment packets from fast food establishments, alchohol, chocolate, coffee, Tea, gum, mixed nuts, raisins, energy bars, granola and hard candy (morale and trade purposes)

Specialty items
CAST-IRON COOKWARE (avoid copper or aluminum pans)
multivitamin supplements, calcium tablets, vitamin C
Iodine tablets for emergency water purification
Powdered milk and powdered eggs

Have several large plastic or glass containers in case it's necessary to store water. Save jars, plastic bags, and similar containers for emergency use.

[Danny]

Wow....and I thought that Celine Dion was a deadly virus....

first off, zing, second you know if something like that happened those obscure members of the forum that loooove to talk about the calibre of guns that can do the most satisfying head shot would go all "falling down" in the streets, god bless the nra.:lol:

[Neil]

The trick is to find inexpensive items on sale and buy in bulk. Try to look for items you would normally use in cooking.


Any idea why there seems to be no mention of simple masks on any of these flu lists?

Surely my suggestion of the goverment stocking up on masks has some merit? If everyone wore one as much as possible surely an outbreak could be reduced or slowed?

[MinionZombie]

Indeed, I would have thought that would make sense, it's what they used with the SARS outbreak, but does this flu thingy transfer via touch (like someone infected touches your shopping or whatever), or is it purely airborne from people coughing on you etc?

[Adrenochrome]

Any idea why there seems to be no mention of simple masks on any of these flu lists?

Surely my suggestion of the goverment stocking up on masks has some merit? If everyone wore one as much as possible surely an outbreak could be reduced or slowed?

it's very strange about the masks.....but, we all know the government here in the Sates cares nothing for the well being it's citizens -it's all about "them".
But, if they stockpiled masks at Fire Department locations, Churches, the stockrooms of grocery stores - places that are basicaly within walking distance from most neighborhoods/homes/communities of all kinds, then people would have quick access to them. BUT, that would make logical sense, and our government doesn't work that way when it comes to humans.:rolleyes:

[Eyebiter]

Consider is how flu spreads - by hand, large droplets of virus, or particles suspended in the air.

Experts seem to disagree just how effective wearing a mask is to prevent transmission. Masks might become an option, but the general public would only start wearing them once the pandemic was well underway. Many fabric types sold are only single use, while more expensive "gas masks" require replacement filters.

The Federal Government assumes 30% of the population will become infected, and 50% of those who are ill will seek medical treatment. Individuals usually show no symptoms during the 12-24 hours after initial exposure. During the first two days as the virus sheds it's easy to transmit. Chances are you would be infected before widespread mask distribution could begin.

The flu season is estimated to last 6-8 weeks with at least two waves of infection. There is a six phase response plan setup by the WHO & CDC. By phase six from what I've read the plan is widespread quarantine in the event of a bird flu pandemic. Close schools, businesses, churches, and other public arenas. Have people stay home for a week or longer "snow days" until after the disease incubation period passes.


http://www.who.int/entity/csr/disease/avian_influenza/pandemicphase1.gif

[Tricky]

The government will probably warn the British public at the last minute,while their all tucked up in their bunker somewhere.I dont think masks or anything else other than a full NBC suit would stop you getting it,just live normally & take your chances

[MinionZombie]

Either that or become a complete and utter unsociable bastard ... *ahem* ... well I can certainly say "job done". :lol:

[capncnut]

Bukkah-buk-buk-bukkah! :lol:

[Danny]

Either that or become a complete and utter unsociable bastard ... *ahem* ... well I can certainly say "job done". :lol:

im guessing you watched those terror alert shows on sky one that were like "survive a nuke or a plague".

the answer was allways "make yourself an unsocioble bastard...":lol:

[MinionZombie]

Actually nope, I never saw those things, too depressing and scare-mongery-like ... so I ran off and watched a sitcom ... or ironically, a zombie film, instead ... I was always an unsociable bastard. :lol:

[Eyebiter]

How Six Communities survived the 1918 flu pandemic http://www.theworld.org/?q=node/7710