Bird flu not a threat soon?

[Neil]

Bird flu could be a nightmare in waiting... But this could help...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/7171118.stm
An earlier report on it - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4747909.stm

[Tricky]

They are digging up a bloke who died of spanish flu about 100 years ago just up the road from me,they are hoping to come up with a vaccine for bird flu from his body!he was buried in a lead lined coffin so his body will be somewhat preserved :barf:
Only problem is it risks releasing the spanish flu virus again which killed thousands :eek:

[acealive1]

these people have issues. accoridng to them we were supposed to all be dead by now. i started high school in 1996 and by then everyone was talking like "we're all doomed" and now its 2008.....:rolleyes::rolleyes:

[Neil]

They are digging up a bloke who died of spanish flu about 100 years ago just up the road from me,they are hoping to come up with a vaccine for bird flu from his body!he was buried in a lead lined coffin so his body will be somewhat preserved :barf:
Only problem is it risks releasing the spanish flu virus again which killed thousands :eek:

HN51 is MANY times more lethal than the 'Spanish Flu'... If it makes the leap to humanity it could be VERY bad!

[CornishCorpse]

Anyone have any info on the chances that the virus will make the leap to humans?

[Neil]

Anyone have any info on the chances that the virus will make the leap to humans?
I don't think any really knows...


The constantly mutating nature of H5N1 causes more problems than just making human transmission a very real, perhaps even likely, possibility. It also makes it difficult to produce a vaccine with any sort of lasting effectiveness. And even if a vaccine was available, there is virtually no excess production capacity in vaccine manufacturers who are equipped to make flu vaccines. There have been shortages of seasonal flu vaccines in recent years, and the demand for those is virtually nothing compared to what the demand for a pandemic avian flu vaccine would be.

It’s an absolutely terrifying thought, but the fact of the matter is that if a human outbreak of H5N1 is not immediately contained, there is not a great deal that anyone can do to prevent a pandemic. Additionally, just because there have been no infected birds found in the Americas does not exempt us from risk. Researchers think that infected birds could reach the United States as soon as August. The global spread of infected birds increases the risk of the pandemic dramatically because a mutation and uncontrolled outbreak could occur anywhere. A fear of many in the public health community is that an outbreak might occur in a country like China, where the government is not likely to be forthcoming to the global community. If China tried to cover up an outbreak, a lapse of just a few weeks would be time enough for the virus to be everywhere.

There is not a great deal of consensus in the public health community as to exactly how likely an avian flu pandemic is. Some epidemiologists place the chances of a mutation to a human transmissible H5N1 at near 50%, making it an extraordinarily high risk. Others say the risk is far lower, but the fact remains that no matter what numbers you go by, the chances of an avian flu pandemic are astronomical compared to any other crisis facing the planet at the moment.

H1N1 (Spanish Flu) made the jump in 1918 and killed 50-100 million, and H5N1 is far far more deadly.

[acealive1]

They are digging up a bloke who died of spanish flu about 100 years ago just up the road from me,they are hoping to come up with a vaccine for bird flu from his body!he was buried in a lead lined coffin so his body will be somewhat preserved :barf:
Only problem is it risks releasing the spanish flu virus again which killed thousands :eek:

wouldnt a disease kind of die after ONE HUNDRED years in a lead coffin six feet underground

[Tricky]

wouldnt a disease kind of die after ONE HUNDRED years in a lead coffin six feet underground

Apparently not! :eek: