Every star in the galaxy has at least one planet

[Neil]

...that's what current predictions suggest! More than 100 billion planets could populate the Milky Way galaxy! http://www.spaceflightnow.com/news/n1201/11exoplanets/ Using a statistical analysis of data collected by a worldwide team of astronomers, the study shows smaller planets are more common than massive Jupiter-sized gas giants. The results, which are published in the journal Nature, were released by the Space Telescope Science Institute in Baltimore, Md. "This means, statistically, every star in the galaxy should have at least one planet, and probably more," said Kailash Sahu, a member of the international team reporting on the study. So why is the galaxy so quiet? And why no visitors?

[Mike70]

So why is the galaxy so quiet? And why no visitors? yeah, the Kepler space telescope is finding planets around almost every star it is surveying. well over 2,400 now and no end in sight. 48 of those planets are in the habitable zone of their parent stars. now to wax poetic about your question: the universe really isn't that old, about 13-14 billion years or so. sounds like a long time but given the lifetime of the 'verse itself, it is small potatoes. in principio, there was only hydrogen and maybe a bit of helium. all the other elements had to manufactured in stars, up to iron on the main sequence and then from supernovae for atomic numbers higher than iron. i would reckon that it would take several billion years at least for enough of the heavier elements that life depends on to be created. there's that bit. the necessary accumulation of the elements that life requires. given that, then there is the possibility that we may be among the first "intelligent" species to evolve in this galaxy at least and at the present age of the 'verse, life may be rare and spread out over vast distances. there is also the possibility that there are older races out there that just don't find us very interesting at the present time. put it this way: are you interested in trying to converse with ants? no, probably not. there is also the cynical view that most civilizations destroy themselves as soon as they learn what fun stuff uranium and plutonium can be. this is not out of the realm of possibility. look at how close our own species has come, at least on one occasion, to obliterating everything we've worked to re-build since the demise of the western roman empire. there is also the possibility that life that has evolved under a different set of conditions wouldn't even look like life to us. look at the weird creatures that live in extreme enviros on our own planet that were once thought incompatible with life. sorry to run on like this but i have 4 weeks to sit on my ass and recover from this damn hernia surgery and i just took some pain meds (so excuse me if this makes even less sense than my usual posts). if you aren't familiar with it yet, take a look at Gliese 581. it is probably one of the most interesting stellar systems aside from our own - and one of its planets is dead in the middle of the habitable zone and might, might mind you, be an ocean planet. in the next few decades the newer space telescopes being built will allow us to get a "taste" of the atmospheres of exo-planets (if they transit their stars at the right angle to us). i think it is inevitable that we find that magic signature: carbon dioxide, water vapor, oxygen, and methane. those four things together would be a clear indication of life.

[Neil]

^^ There is also two scenarios you haven't covered, and they're ones I thinking are becoming more likely. 1) Most species succumb to the Easter Island issue. They use up all/most of their vital resources before working out the error of their ways. If you consider Earth, we have huge amounts of fossil fuels and other important resources. Are we looking after them, and using them wisely for example to ensure we can get to other planets/asteroids to obtain more supplies? Are we using our fossil fuels wisely to ensure they last as long as possible giving us as much time to invent and to alternative sources? No... Instead we're too fussed about getting our next techno gizmo as cheap as possible from China, which will be in a land fill within ever shortening times. 2) Space travel/exploration is so hard it proves impossible. The sheer size/scale of space travel proves so hard, species have no choice but to stay and stagnate on their own planet - possibly resulting in (1) again. carbon dioxide, water vapor, oxygen, and methane. those four things together would be a clear indication of life. Are you sure? They can all occur naturally without the need for life?

[Danny]

So why is the galaxy so quiet? And why no visitors? Why would you want to visit? i mean not to be a downer but in the very grandest scheme of things we are akin to a sentient cancer or virus that wars, consumes, spreads and pollutes every single day without a possibility of end with an incredible ability to adapt and change our environment to suit our needs. To us thats ,well thats us, we cant find it horrifying, we can look down on it sure, but its our nature on a very fundamental level. To a truly alien species that could be the most terrifying thing imaginable and not only could they avoid us, but dread the day we begin to spread from planet to planet like a contagion. Stephen hawking has gone on record saying if life exists we should not make contact incase they are resource greedy plunderers that would only make war and subjugate us our wipe us out. But heres the thing, thats a two way street, isn't it? We are an angry xenophobic, downright hateful species. We paint alien life as the conquering monsters because we must be the standard of good and just nature in the universe. he idea of anything else is unacceptable. Well maybe theres an alien stephen hawking equivalent on an alien world that HAS discovered us and is crying out 'do not make contact, we cannot let them know where we are for our kinds safety!', maybe we are the marauding, monstrous horde of every alien villainous race in science fiction in a century or two? maybe we have been left alone for a very good reason, maybe some other life out there looks up at the milky way in fear of the day the bizarre mammals that make war and murder every single day of their existence will one day show up on their worlds, unified in the face of great plunder and an even more xenos people to make war on with one word in their mouths "MINE"

[Neil]

Why would you want to visit? i mean not to be a downer but in the very grandest scheme of things we are akin to a sentient cancer or virus that wars, consumes, spreads and pollutes every single day without a possibility of end with an incredible ability to adapt and change our environment to suit our needs. Have you noticed how facinated our species is in observing other animals even on our own planet, and even trying to communicate with them? Can't see it being unlikely that other species would have the same desire to see, observe and explore other life forms...

[Danny]

Have you noticed how facinated our species is in observing other animals even on our own planet, and even trying to communicate with them? Can't see it being unlikely that other species would have the same desire to see, observe and explore other life forms... based on what? the way we behave? one example does not a case study make. Even if they were a like minded species it would still be something far more advanced than us or just so truly alien we cannot relate to each other at all. I mean i hate to paraphrase a richard gere flick but you are more advanced than a pigeon, you dont try and spark up a conversation with one. let alone explain what you are to the pigeon.

[Tricia Martin]

You guys may find this interesting...Michio Kaku is my favorite Theoretical Physicist.

[Danny]

michio is the new carl sagan, mu'fukka makes science rad.

[Tricia Martin]

michio is the new carl sagan, mu'fukka makes science rad. hahah! Indeed! I love his sense of humor! Not only that- he has an amazing brain! I still like Carl Sagan too...but in my mind Michio is just the best! -- -------- Post added at 01:19 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:09 PM ---------- ^^ There is also two scenarios you haven't covered, and they're ones I thinking are becoming more likely. 1) Most species succumb to the Easter Island issue. They use up all/most of their vital resources before working out the error of their ways. If you consider Earth, we have huge amounts of fossil fuels and other important resources. Are we looking after them, and using them wisely for example to ensure we can get to other planets/asteroids to obtain more supplies? Are we using our fossil fuels wisely to ensure they last as long as possible giving us as much time to invent and to alternative sources? No... Instead we're too fussed about getting our next techno gizmo as cheap as possible from China, which will be in a land fill within ever shortening times. And speaking of future gizmos and whatnot...this is one of my favorite lectures by Michio...it's a long one, but I found it difficult to even pause it to go pee...hahaa! So very interesting. -- -------- Post added at 01:34 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:19 PM ---------- One more thing. If you guys have channels on YouTube and like him, he has his own channel. http://www.youtube.com/user/mkaku2050

[Neil]

based on what? the way we behave? one example does not a case study make. Even if they were a like minded species it would still be something far more advanced than us or just so truly alien we cannot relate to each other at all. I mean i hate to paraphrase a richard gere flick but you are more advanced than a pigeon, you dont try and spark up a conversation with one. let alone explain what you are to the pigeon. I don't get these comparisons. There's a very big difference between comparing us to an ant/pigeon, and an advanced alien species and us. Ants & pigeons are not sentient beings. They cannot theorise, imagine, invent, discover and rationalise the universe itself. We are truly are self-aware! Now consider how fascinated we are with dolphins for example, because there's just the tiniest possibility there is something behind that eye contemplating things, at least to some small degree! I cannot help but believe another species, no matter how advanced, would not be fascinated with us. Now, they may not wish to disclose themselves to us, but that's another point.

[Danny]

I don't get these comparisons. There's a very big difference between comparing us to an ant/pigeon, and an advanced alien species and us. Ants & pigeons are not sentient beings. They cannot theorise, imagine, invent, discover and rationalise the universe itself. We are truly are self-aware! Now consider how fascinated we are with dolphins for example, because there's just the tiniest possibility there is something behind that eye contemplating things, at least to some small degree! I cannot help but believe another species, no matter how advanced, would not be fascinated with us. Now, they may not wish to disclose themselves to us, but that's another point. all because you are humanising something which by definition is as inhuman as said ants and pigeons. you sound like you expect vulcans to land and be 'human, but smarter' or something. life is, by its nature, chaotic. The odds of life having the same kind of sentience as we define it as based on earths biosphere, of having some semblance of 'humanity' is astronomically more unlikely than life on another word merely existing at all. Look at how many species we have today, and thats less than a 1% of all the life that has ever existed on this planet, in our biosphere things 'similar' to us count in a a single dozen at best. now magnify this across the entire universe, across all possible biospheres, and across types of life we dont have on earth, hell, types of life we may not even be able to qualify as 'life' by our standards. you use 'dolphin' as an example because its something that clearly has a form of intelligence and understands us. but thats still one lifeform talking to another from the same basic genetic source that evolved in the same ecology of earths topolgy and environment. you are reaching for the similarities, you should be looking for the dissimilarities instead. I dont use insect or pigeon because they are 'stupid' they are not stupid creatures. they are just "unknowable" in the same way and its the best example i can use without mentioning something like a jellyfish or something. Hell, look at crows. Scientists have begun to speak out on how the crow may actually be more intelligent than dolphins or apes. but it will never understand you. and its a species that has grown and evolved in the very same environment as man for millennia. But the trouble is we have grown so coddled on animals that we humanise them, let alone alien life. we name them, expect them to understand us on a linguistic level and not just recognising basic noise input. we get our food pre processed so no longer truly associate it with our prey as a hunting life form, because we dont hunt. everybody acts like animals are just that hairs breadth away from opening their mouths and speaking english, but they aren't. anything that came close we interbred or hunted to extinction. Alien life is by very definition alien. its not going to be some human with purple skin and tentacles for hair. it could be an energy impulse in granular quartz, it could be a single celled life form the size of an ocean, it could be something insect like developed tool use in some extrapolation of hive working castes and had a gravity level that allowed for them to grow much larger. we have no possible idea. But its human nature to think of something we already know from point of reference or experience to fill in a shape. like how [ ] <--that is not a square, but we see one, because of how we are programmed to perceive and puzzle solve. Why would i think aliens would leave us alone? Look at us, even compared to our genetic family of apes. We are an impossible creature, we are so poorly suited as an animal to survive without tools, especially in colder or hotter climates. we live in giant hives of concrete and steel and glass and move around on machines driven by internal combustion. too any space faring life that would discover us WE are alien. look in the mirror sometime. If theres life out there that could be the face of the most horrifying alien monstrosity they have ever seen. the hairless, mammalian war makers from the dreaded planet earth.

[Neil]

all because you are humanising something which by definition is as inhuman as said ants and pigeons. you sound like you expect vulcans to land and be 'human, but smarter' or something. life is, by its nature, chaotic. The odds of life having the same kind of sentience as we define it as based on earths biosphere, of having some semblance of 'humanity' is astronomically more unlikely than life on another word merely existing at all. Not at all.... No ant or pigeon, nor indeed any other animal planet, can describe the gravitational constant and its place in the universe. They have no ability to rationalise or invent. We do... We are in that way fundamentally different to them. I therefore suggest an alien species at least can converse with us on some level. Have you ever tried chatting to a pigeon, on any level? The comparison of an advanced alien species communicating with us, is not comparible to us with an ant IMHO. Why would i think aliens would leave us alone? Look at us, even compared to our genetic family of apes. We are an impossible creature, we are so poorly suited as an animal to survive without tools, especially in colder or hotter climates. we live in giant hives of concrete and steel and glass and move around on machines driven by internal combustion. too any space faring life that would discover us WE are alien. Don't quite understand this point. But I would say that indeed we may just not be interesting enough to bother about at the moment due to the fact we've only just climbed out of caves really

[Neil]

^^ There is also two scenarios you haven't covered, and they're ones I thinking are becoming more likely. 1) Most species succumb to the Easter Island issue. They use up all/most of their vital resources before working out the error of their ways. If you consider Earth, we have huge amounts of fossil fuels and other important resources. Are we looking after them, and using them wisely for example to ensure we can get to other planets/asteroids to obtain more supplies? Are we using our fossil fuels wisely to ensure they last as long as possible giving us as much time to invent and to alternative sources? No... Instead we're too fussed about getting our next techno gizmo as cheap as possible from China, which will be in a land fill within ever shortening times. Along with my suggestion that most species in the Universe die out due to using up their resources without forethought, this documentary is quite applicable:- http://www.aintitcool.com/node/53180 SURVIVING PROGRESS talks to some of the top thinkers on the planet about the progress traps facing the planet now, the likes of Jane Goodall, Stephen Hawking, David Suzuki, Craig Venter, Margaret Atwood, and more than a dozen others. The main problem is that there are 7 billion people on the planet, but a couple billion are using the vast majority of the resources. The planet can’t sustain it if the developing countries are brought up to the western standard. There isn’t enough oil for everyone to have a car. There aren’t enough fish in the seas. Meanwhile we’re doing potentially irreversible damage to the planet by clear cutting rainforests and pumping out greenhouse gasses. But this is much more than some hippie jeremiad. From there the filmmakers probe deeper into the underlying causes of environmental exploitation, patterns from history, our economic system, corruption, even the forces that shaped our primate brains. Making the stakes even higher is the fact that we are for the first time a globally interconnected society. No longer are there simultaneously hundreds of city-states competing with different economic models. There is effectively only one experiment running now, and a collapse could spell disaster on a scale never before seen.