Will traditional television become obsolete?

[JDFP]

From another thread an interesting premise I had so I wanted to post out for others to come and share their thoughts... I think traditional television as we know it will probably become obsolete within the next 20 years or so. This doesn't mean the major networks (NBC, FOX, CBS, ABC, CW, BBC, etc.) will no longer exist -- it just means they'll go to the web of the internet. Advertising for commercials and programming will take a very different turn over the next decade or so -- and ultimately, in about 20 years or so if not sooner, we'll no longer think of "television" as we do today. I think eventually we'll get to a point where there is no longer any need for cable and/or satellite television. All the networks will have access via the internet for subscription streaming (Cable networks and specialty programing) and regular content screening (local news / regular programming such as network shows). With the event of HULU/Fancast and other such programs, this is coming closer to reality every day. Ultimately, I believe this is where we are headed. Why spend money for cable television (at higher and higher prices each year -- some folks spending $100 plus every month for services!) when we'll have HD-capable content at our fingertips on the internet? Anyway, just some food for thought. What are your thoughts on it? j.p.

[ProfessorChaos]

i'd have to say that it's inevitable. big cable companies and satellite companies charge ridiculous rates (after a year, usually, as you get a locked-in contract for 1 year) for some terrible programming. i can't recall how many times i'd be bored, flip on the television, cruise through the guide for 15-20 mins, find nothing on, wonder "why am i paying for this crap?" and shut it off...either that or settle in and watch reruns of shit i already have on dvd or some deadliest catch marathon and drift off to sleep. the only upside to having cable was being able to follow my favorite baseball team. that was always good background stuff, i could do laundry, dishes, homework, etc and watch the game. but with only maybe a dozen shows (at max, and that's being generous) that i cared to watch, why waste that money and be bombarded by commercials and shit like "survivor 16", "real world 23", "dancing with the stars" or "america's next top dog groomer"? give me a fucking break. i admit that i'm a bit bored at times without cable, but i've been able to find all shows online in some fashion or another and i'm actually a bit more productive without it...and i've got more money, too, which never hurts.

[Wyldwraith]

If you want to see a pro-Internet future, I suggest you look into the current proposed legislation that will allow the government to compel ISPs to block any site/Domain without even citing cause. There's a major petition circulating against this, check out Demonoid's frontpage, it has links to the petition. This is really bad stuff guys, if the gov't slides this one past us the Internet will be well on its way to becoming as regimented, mindless and lifeless as the TV networks. And no, I'm not overstating things. They're really going for a "ISP, block Domains X,Y and Z or be shut down without legal remedy or recourse." This is some Patriot Act-style fascist monolithic government abuse, straight out of 1984 or F. 451. Not asking you to take my word for it. Do the research yourself. All I ask is that you look beyond their immediate/current stated reason for doing this to the broad-reaching implications of such legislation. This could very well become the balance-point that people will look back to and say "This is where Big Government took direct control-by-threat of the Internet" if we remain asleep at the switch. If you think I'm overstating matters, fine. I simply plead with all of you to look into this matter for yourselves and make up your own minds. Sadly (as I'm a Democrat), I'm forced to recognize that Obama has a major hard-on to bring the Internet to heel. I could forgive the guy a great many of his mistakes, but as someone who spends 95% of the time I'm awake day or night on the 'Net in one way or another, due to my health preventing me from leaving my family's home for several years now. When you're stuck in a bedroom 24/7/365, other than Dr. and Dentist appointments, the Internet and the Phone become lifelines that hold what remains of my mind together. If they sanitize the 'Net and turn it into an online version of the Cable/Satellite networks it'll be the end of me, so this issue is something I take VERY seriously, and feel others who believe in Net Neutrality as I do should take equally serious.

[Tricky]

Who wants to watch TV on their PC monitor anyway? Unless of course you connect your actual TV set to the net and have some kind of wireless keyboard that doubles as a remote to use it I'm on computers most of the day at work and they give me blurry eyes & a bit of a headache after a while, certainly wouldnt want to watch TV on one! I never watch films or anything on my home PC, its just games & internet

[ProfessorChaos]

HDMI cables, trickster. i've got a 15-foot cable that easily reaches for my hdtv to my laptop which sits on the coffee table. and even though i own night90, dawn78, and a few other great films, i've only got the dvd's, so it's a nice bonus to be able to find an hd upload and notice all kinds of subtle things you don't catch on the dvd. for instance, were you aware that the old man they encounter in the cemetery in night90 (the "i'm sorry...i'm sorry" fellow) has pinstripes on his suit? i just discovered this the other day....and the airport scene in dawn? you can read nearly all notes posted to the door that the zombie kids come out of. pretty nifty.

[SymphonicX]

My PC is set up through my 42" LCD - I have a wireless keyboard and mouse which I use to call up movies or on demand stuff. The whole industry is up in arms about where it's going to go - you think you've any idea? You should get yourselves down to your local broadcaster because I guarantee they haven't got the foggiest! The main problem, at least in the UK, is synergy between the different forms of TV and the way it's offerered - public service TV like the BBC cannot offer its services on subscription based set top boxes if they aren't available for free, for instance. This is the problem with Project Canvas and Project Kangaroo - which all saw lot of controversy before being scrapped or going back to the drawing board. Advertising has taken a major dent since the advent of internet and tivo based products which allow you to skip commercial breaks - the systems now are set up so that the main USPs of a product and it's advertisements are seen whilst fast forwarding - give that one a try, watch a programme and skip the adverts, I guarantee you'll be able to name a fair few of those products even having skipped the lot. Synergy between pay TV and public based TV is going to be hard. Bandwidth for proper HD programming is very high, and unfortunately trumps that of most domestic bandwidth capabilities. For instance we'd never be able to stream the Mpeg2 HD stream of BBC HD through the internet. We can however, watch highly compressed flash version of this through the iplayer - which is a shame in most respects because it'll only inspire the rest of the industry to compress their content down to fit our puny little broadband lines. As it stands we couldn't even stream an SD programme over the internet at full quality - what you get on VOD services like iplayer, skyplayer etc etc are very highly compressed, lossy versions of the original encodes. You'd be looking at 500mb for a 30 min program at SD quality. So at the moment, whilst technology may be helping to make TV obsolete, it's got a long way to go yet. What you'll see in the future are hybrid third party internet streaming boxes which allow people unable to hook up satellite dishes or to get cable access to stream content from the internet to the box directly - then you'll see TVs with these services built in - but that won't happen for at least another few years/ But until the internet can stream high quality, loss-less pictures across the web with no loss of connectivity, then TV will still be in our homes - unfortunately it can't get anywhere close to the processing power of a dedicated satellite reciever and the bottom line is that even with new forms of delivering content, TV will still be made and broadcast in almost exactly the same way - it'll just be delivered to your door in a different envelope, that's all.

[Tricky]

Another thing then - how much would it cost the average person for all the gear to watch this TV in this way? At a time when huge cutbacks are coming because everyone has been living beyond their means for so long, is fancy TV's, superfast broadband, lots of pointless channels & all the equipment you need to watch them going to take priority over food on the table for your average family? I for one wont be banging a load of electronic gear and subscriptions on my credit card seen as I barely watch any TV anyway these days

[Neil]

Who wants to watch TV on their PC monitor anyway? We have Boxee Box coming out which is a media player with great internet connectivity. We also have a number of manufacturers (eg: Sony) backing Google TV, again so you can watch your TV programs via the tinterweb...

[SymphonicX]

Another thing then - how much would it cost the average person for all the gear to watch this TV in this way? At a time when huge cutbacks are coming because everyone has been living beyond their means for so long, is fancy TV's, superfast broadband, lots of pointless channels & all the equipment you need to watch them going to take priority over food on the table for your average family? I for one wont be banging a load of electronic gear and subscriptions on my credit card seen as I barely watch any TV anyway these days well BskyB saw massive up take on their services when the recession hit us - people's budgets shrink so instead of going out to the pub every night or taking the family out to theme parks, they save money by staying in doors and entertaining the family with Pay TV. Fact...!

[Tricky]

well BskyB saw massive up take on their services when the recession hit us - people's budgets shrink so instead of going out to the pub every night or taking the family out to theme parks, they save money by staying in doors and entertaining the family with Pay TV. Fact...! Yeah I guess thats true, although not for me. My hobbies include skydiving & paintballing, so i'd rather be able to afford those than slump in front of the TV. I could quite happily get by with no TV at all!

[Danny]

for the most part i either watch tv shows over the internet on my 24' imac which has a better picture than my hd tv or stream it straight to my ps3 and even then there are few shows i watch right now. 30 rock,big bang theory, the walking dead, thats it really now everything else has finished for the season. mostly i dont watch television anymore. but personally i hope gameshows die out, fukken hate gameshows.

[Mike70]

advertising dollars are the life blood of network TV. as long as companies feel that is the best way for them to promote their products it isn't going anywhere. i think it is going to take a very, very long time for that paradigm to change - much longer than anyone thinks.

[Danny]

advertising dollars are the life blood of network TV. as long as companies feel that is the best way for them to promote their products it isn't going anywhere. i think it is going to take a very, very long time for that paradigm to change - much longer than anyone thinks. multiple pop up and pop in ads in online tv sites that require no limit or schedule beg to differ.

[blind2d]

True, good point. Now as for myself, I really don't care what happens to television as we have known it for so long, but yes, I believe a significant change will occur, and soon. But you know, television hasn't really been the same for me since they stopped showing good cartoons on Saturday mornings, so there you go.

[bassman]

I don't think so. If anything, it will become a direct connection service such as on demand. It will all be directly linked to your tv. Most likely through the internet rather than a cable. Just because a new technology is upon us doesn't mean it's going to kill off the old entirely. Look at theaters. Everyone thought they were doomed when the TV came around. Not the case. Besides.....I don't think many people want to watch tv through their computer. True, you can connect it to your TV but most people will still probably see that as too much work. As I said before....much like they're already doing, soon it will be a service connected from the net to your TV. But that won't kill off TV broadcasting.